Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for MARCH 2026

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (March, 2026) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 88.0

• Actual: 91.8

================

Previous Month (revised): 91.0

• Change from Previous Month: +0.9% (+0.8 point)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...While not obvious in the headline or its component indexes, the weight of rising costs due to tariff pass-through and spiking oil prices was evident among other measures in the survey like inflation expectations.

'Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

'Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

MARCH 2026 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for MARCH 2026

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for March, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 54.0

• Actual: 53.3

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -5.83% (-3.3 points)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -6.49% (-3.7 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for February 2026: 56.6
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for March 2025: 57.0

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran invasion, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment. 

Overall, the short-run economic outlook plunged 14%, and year-ahead expected personal finances sank 10%, while declines in long-run expectations were more subdued.

These patterns suggest that, at this time, consumers may not expect recent negative developments to persist far into the future. These views are subject to change, however, if the Iran conflict becomes protracted or if higher energy prices pass through to overall inflation.

Interviews for this release were collected between February 17 and March 23, with about two-thirds completed after the start of the US military invasion of Iran.

Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from 3.4% in February to 3.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025. The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations inched down to 3.2%. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%. Note that for both time horizons, interviews completed after February 28th exhibited higher inflation expectations than those completed before that date..."

=========

CHART: Expectations Worsen After Start of 
Invasion of Iran, Particularly Over Short Run 
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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March 27, 2026 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

March 27, 2026: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished the week in correction territory, joining the NASDAQ Composite index, which fell into correction yesterday (March 26.)

NYMEX front month WTI crude oil closed at $101.16 per barrel (CHART)... 

 

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -10.01% (-5,021.50 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -12.56% (-3,010.11 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -8.74% (-609.75 points) - CHART

===========

CHART: NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Price History
March 27, 2026 UPDATE
===============

CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
March 27, 2026 UPDATE
===============

• Currently, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on April 29, 2026.

Stay tuned...

==============

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New Home Sales During JANUARY 2026

The January, 2026 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department:

------------------------------------------------------

Previous Month (unrevised): 712,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 587,000

------------------------------------------------------

• Change from 1-Month Previous: -125,000 units (-17.56%)
  
  
• Change from 1-Year Previous: -75,000 units (-11.33%)

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home
During January, 2026: $400,500

• Change from One-Year Previous: -$29,100 (-6.77%)

 ***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During January, 2026: $499,500

• Change from One-Year Previous: -$18,700 (-3.61%)

------------------------------------------------------
Inventory: 472,000 (-17,000 units / -3.48% Year-on-Year)

• 7.6 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

------------------------------------------------------

================================

CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
JANUARY 2026 Update

================================

• CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for The Monthly Existing Home Sales Report.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

================================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

================================

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Existing Home Sales During FEBRUARY 2026

Existing Home Sales report for February, 2026 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,020,000

• Actual: 4,090,000

======================

•  Change from Previous Month: +1.74% (+70,000 homes)
  
  
•  Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): -1.45% (-60,000 homes)

======================

• Inventory: 1,290,000 homes.

(3.8 months supply | +60,000 [+4.88%] homes Y-o-Y.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

• Median Price: $398,000
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +0.3% (+$1,200)

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for New Home Sales Data.
  
  
• Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding,' said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. 'Still, there is a long way to go to return to pre-pandemic levels of transaction activity. There are more than 6 million more jobs than in 2019, yet home sales per year are down by one million.'

'Despite the modest gain in home sales, actual housing demand remains muted relative to wage growth and job gains,' Yun continued. 'Wage growth is now outpacing home price growth by almost four percentage points. Mortgage rates are also measurably lower compared to a year ago.'

'Inventory is growing, but sluggishly,' he added. 'If demand picks up notably in the coming months and outpaces supply growth, home prices will inevitably rise. That is why increasing supply is so important to help limit home price growth, improve housing affordability, and boost transactions.'..."

==================

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales

FEBRUARY 2026 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2026 REALTORS®)

==================

==================

• Click here to view the NAR® data.

==================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for FEBRUARY 2026

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (February, 2026) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 88.0

• Actual: 91.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 89.0

• Change from Previous Month: +2.47% (+2.2 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).'

'Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices, inflation, and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumer’s minds. Mentions of trade and politics also increased in February. Labor market mentions eased a bit in February, while observations about immigration increased somewhat.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

FEBRUARY 2026 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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New Home Sales During DECEMBER 2025

The December, 2025 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department:

------------------------------------------------------

Previous Month (unrevised): 758,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 745,000

------------------------------------------------------

• Change from 1-Month Previous: -13,000 units (-1.72%)
  
  
• Change from 1-Year Previous: +27,000 units (+3.76%)

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home
During December, 2025: $414,400

• Change from One-Year Previous: -$8,600 (-2.03%)

 ***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During December, 2025: $532,600

• Change from One-Year Previous: +$23,700 (+4.66%)

------------------------------------------------------
Inventory: 472,000 (-17,000 units / -3.48% Year-on-Year)

• 7.6 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

------------------------------------------------------

================================

CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
DECEMBER 2025 Update

================================

• CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for The Monthly Existing Home Sales Report.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

================================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

================================

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for FEBRUARY 2026

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for February, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 55.0

• Actual: 56.6

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +0.35% (+0.2 point)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -12.52% (-8.1 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for January 2026: 56.4
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for February 2025: 64.7

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment stagnated this month with very little change, just 0.2 index points higher than January. All index components posted insignificant movements this month; overall, consumers do not perceive any material differences in the economy from last month.

About 46% of consumers spontaneously mentioned high prices eroding their personal finances; readings have exceeded 40% for seven months in a row. Sentiment is about 13% below a year ago and 21% below January 2025.

That said, views vary considerably across the population. A sizable month-to-month increase in sentiment for the largest stockholders was fully offset by a decline among consumers without stock holdings. Similar divergences were seen across income and education, where higher-income or college educated consumers exhibited increases in sentiment while lower-income or less-educated counterparts did not.

With their much stronger income prospects and investment portfolios, wealthier and higher-income consumers feel better insulated from any possible risks to the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.0% last month to 3.4% this month, the lowest reading since January 2025. This month’s reading still exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.3%, just above the 2.8% and 3.2% range seen in 2024. In 2019 and 2020, long-run inflation expectations were consistently below 2.8%. Uncertainty, as measured by the middle 50% of expectations, is now its lowest since December 2024 for the short run and October 2024 for the long run..."

=========

CHART: Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated
but Recently Converged for Consumers
Who Did and Did Not Mention Tariffs 
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Existing Home Sales During JANUARY 2026

Existing Home Sales report for January, 2026 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,270,000

• Actual: 3,910,000

======================

•  Change from Previous Month: -8.43% (-360,000 homes)
  
  
•  Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): -4.4% (-180,000 homes)

======================

• Inventory: 1,220,000 homes.

(3.7 months supply | +40,000 [+3.39%] homes Y-o-Y.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

• Median Price: $396,800
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +0.86% (+$3,400)

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for New Home Sales Data.
  
  
• Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'The decrease in sales is disappointing. The below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this January make it harder than usual to assess the underlying driver of the decrease and determine if this month’s numbers are an aberration,' said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun.

'Affordability conditions are improving, with NAR’s Housing Affordability Index showing that housing is the most affordable it’s been since March 2022. This is due to wage gains outpacing home price growth and mortgage rates being lower than a year ago. However, supply has not kept pace and remains quite low.'

'Due to low supply, the median home price reached a new high for the month of January,' Yun added. 'Homeowners are in a financially comfortable position as a result. Since January 2020, a typical homeowner would have accumulated $130,500 in housing wealth.'..."

==================

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales

JANUARY 2026 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2026 REALTORS®)

==================

==================

• Click here to view the NAR® data.

==================

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Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for FEBRUARY 2026

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for February, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 52.0

• Actual: 57.3

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +1.6% (+0.9 point)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -11.44% (-7.4 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for January, 2026: 56.4
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for February, 2025: 64.7

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January 2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings.

On net, modest increases in current personal finances and buying conditions for durables were offset by a small decline in long-run business conditions.

While sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly increases have been small -- well under the margin of error -- and the overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical perspective. Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to be widespread. Interviews for this release cover the two-week period that ended this past Monday.

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.0% last month to 3.5% this month, the lowest reading since January 2025. This month’s reading still exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations inched up for the second straight month, from 3.3% last month to 3.4% this month. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8% and 3.2% in 2024, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020..."

=========

CHART: Wealth Gaps in Sentiment Continue to Widen,
Mirroring Trends Seen in 2023 and 2024

FEBRUARY 2026 UPDATE

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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NEW PHISHING SCAM: Facebook Has Temporarily Suspended Your Account (ACCEPT / IGNORE Button)

So this is a new Facebook (FB) phishing scam....For me anyway.

Was taking care of some business on FB, when this nasty message popped up in my face (👈 image.)

It says, "Facebook has temporarily suspended your account," and it shows you two (2) buttons: [ACCEPT] and a flashing red [IGNORE.]👆

OK, so if are on FB and you see this popup message, DO NOT CLICK THAT FLASHING IGNORE BUTTON!

This is a common trick the scammer use: A fake button that makes you think that if you click it you will get rid of the popup.

But, of course, the opposite is true.

Instead of clicking the [ACCEPT] or [IGNORE] buttons, close the window.

At this point the attack may have locked up your computer so that you can't close the message.

🚨 THIS IS WHAT YOU SHOULD DO 🚨

If that's the case, then shutdown your computer, and unplug it.  Unplug it even if it's a laptop.

Then wait at least 10 minutes before starting it up again.

Once you have rebooted, use your preferred virus scanner to scan your system, after you've check for the latest threat updates via the Internet.

I use Microsoft's built-in Defender Antivirus on my Windows 11 computers, and I check for the latest updates on a very regular basis (sometime multiple checks per day.) 

OK, so if you accidentally click on that malicious [IGNORE] button, another popup will smack you in the face, and this time it will fill up your entire screen!

   💣> Do NOT Click ANYTHING in that WINDOW! <💣

EVERYTHING in that page is MALICIOUS and can do some very serious harm to your computer, or your finances, or your private data, etc.

So, again, if you can't close that window, scroll back 👆 up this page 👆 and follow the steps under the heading "THIS IS WHAT YOU SHOULD DO" and you should be OK. 💫

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for JANUARY 2026

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (January, 2026) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 89.0

• Actual: 84.5

================

Previous Month (revised): 94.2

• Change from Previous Month: -10.3% (-9.7 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. 'All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2) -- surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.'

Peterson added: “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. References to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices remained elevated. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January, and references to health/insurance and war edged higher.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

JANUARY 2026 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for JANUARY 2026

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for January, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 56.4

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +6.62% (+3.5 points)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -21.34% (-15.3 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for December 2025: 52.9
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for January 2025: 71.7

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment lifted about 3.5 index points this month, with minor gains seen across all index components. While the overall improvement was small, it was broad based, seen across the income distribution, educational attainment, older and younger consumers, and Republicans and Democrats alike.

However, national sentiment remains more than 20% below a year ago, as consumers continue to report pressures on their purchasing power stemming from high prices and the prospect of weakening labor markets.

Aside from tariff policy, consumers do not appear to be connecting foreign developments to their views of the economy. Note that interviews for this release concluded on January 19th, two days after Trump’s social media post announcing additional tariffs on eight countries in Europe..."

=========

CHART: Inflation Uncertainty Down from Q2, 2025
Peaks but Remains Substantially Elevated
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

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