Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for June 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for June 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 60.5

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +15.90% (+8.3 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -11.29% (-7.7 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for May 2025: 52.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for June 2024: 68.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in six months, climbing 16% from last month but remaining about 20% below December 2024, when sentiment had exhibited a post-election bump. These trends were unanimous across the distributions of age, income, wealth, political party, and geographic region.

Moreover, all five index components rose, with a particularly steep increase for short and long-run expected business conditions, consistent with a perceived easing of pressures from tariffs.

Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed.

However, consumers still perceive wide-ranging downside risks to the economy. Their views of business conditions, personal finances, buying conditions for big ticket items, labor markets, and stock markets all remain well below six months ago in December 2024. Despite this month’s notable improvement, consumers remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations plunged from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month. Long-run inflation expectations fell for the second straight month, stepping down from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June. Both readings are the lowest in three months.

Consumers’ fears about the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation  have softened somewhat in June. Still, inflation expectations remain above readings seen throughout the second half of 2024, reflecting widespread beliefs that trade policy may still contribute to an increase in inflation in the year ahead..."

=========

CHART: Sentiment Lifts for the First Time Since December 2024 
Amid Softening Tariff Worries; Consumers Remain Guarded.
JUNE 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE --> SITEMAP <--

New York City Rent Is Too High!

NYC Skyline

It’s been more than two decades since I decided to give up the humble and often humiliating life of a struggling New Yorker and move out of the city.  I was living in a tiny basement apartment in Jackson Heights, Queens, working in Manhattan, but with an income that made living on America’s most fabulous island impossible.

From a May 18, 2023 CNN article:

"... The median cost of renting an apartment in Manhattan was $4,241 in April. That’s up 8% from a year ago and up 1.6% from March, when rents hit a record high of $4,175.

A one-bedroom apartment had a median rent of $4,200, up 5% from last year; while a two-bedroom apartment had a median rent of $5,500, up 11% from a year ago. A studio apartment rents for a median price of $3,235, up 13.5% from last year..."

So, on this two-decade anniversary of me moving out of NYC Housing Hell, here is my top 10 list of reasons why I don’t like NYC:

1)  >>  The Rent Is Too Damn High!  <<

2)  There is dog poo EVERYWHERE!  Why do New Yorkers think it’s OK to leave feces all over the place, so that we can all step in it and drag it into our homes?  DISGUSTING!  Sometimes I think I’m the only one who hates this.

3)  NYC Subway I:  It’s way too crowded during rush hours.  If you can’t find a seat, you’ll stand.  And if you’re lucky, the guy or gal who is packed into a subway car and standing next to you -- and I mean so packed that they are right in your face -- didn’t bother to brush their teeth that morning…

4)  NYC Subway II: In the dead of winter, the air in underground platforms is colder than the air outside, and hotter than the outdoors during the oppressive heat of mid-summer.  Lovely.

5)  NYC Subway III: Rats and Roaches.  Nice.  And the rats are brazen.  One time, I caught one literally spitting in my direction, and looking me dead in the eyes while doing so…

6)  NYC Subway IV - More disgust: I was moving between subway cars one morning, trying to find a seat, and found a MASSIVE pile of human feces in-between the cars. Almost stepped in it. Awesome.

7)  Residential and Commercial Roach Problems: Trying to eradicate cockroaches is pretty much pointless.  They are too hardy. Too resilient. Too evil. I’ve gotten a free meal in my favorite restaurant on more than one occasion, because they couldn’t get rid of them.

8) I love the city, but not the people.  The typical New Yorker is a negative, rude, nasty, putrid piece of junk.  Too much schadenfreude.  Not enough community (with the exception of the 9/11 terror attacks, when, during a long mountain-bike ride around three boroughs, I witnessed thousands of ordinary city folk gather at their local fire house to cheer and salute the heroism of New York City’s intrepid firefighters.)

9) The cops: Not all bad, of course, but enough are so bad that they engender much displeasure for all the cops.

10) When my mom retired from her job, and bought herself a new car as a retirement preset, she donated her old diesel workhorse to yours truly.  And I was quickly reminded how bad NYC roads are.  On one beautiful spring morning, I wasn’t able to avoid a huge pothole, and BANG!  Had to replace a rim.  With labor, it cost me $400 to replace, and the replacement was used! 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE --> SITEMAP <--

FRONTLINE: The Power of The Fed

FRONTLINE: The Power of The Fed

>> https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/the-power-of-the-fed/ <<

>> https://twitter.com/FedPrimeRate/status/1455635748217044994 <<

via @frontlinepbs

#TheFed #Fed #Money #MonetaryPolicy #FedPrimeRate #USA #FederalReserve #HowTheFedWorks #HowTheFedReallyWorks #Rates #InterestRates #FedFunds #FedFundsRate #Frontline #PBS

www.FedPrimeRate.com - FRONTLINE: The Power of The Fed

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE --> SITEMAP <--

The Boomer Entrepreneurs

From Nightly Business Report: A growing number of baby boomers are choosing entrepreneurship over the traditional relaxation retirement...

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE --> SITEMAP <--

The Next Generation Of Entrepreneurs

From Nightly Business Report: Why Millennials are on track to become the least entrepreneurial in recent history....

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE --> SITEMAP <--

Federal Reserve Report: Household Net Worth Sets New Record-High

According to the Federal Reserve's recent Financial Accounts report, in terms of both current and inflation-adjusted dollars, Americans households were at their wealthiest ever, during the first quarter of 2016.

Q1, 2016: $88.087 trillion

=============

2015: $87.25 trillion

2014: $84.201 trillion

2013: $79.383 trillion

2012: $69.598 trillion

2011: $63.545 trillion

2010: $62.316 trillion

2009: $58.094 trillion

• 2008:  $56.214 trillion

2007:  $66.577 trillion

2006:  $66.095 trillion

=============

So, from the painful days of the 2008 banking crisis and start of the Great Recession, to the first quarter of 2016, household wealth has increased by $31.873 trillion (56.7%.)

=============

Household Net Worth

=============

• Click here to read the full Federal Reserve report.

The Fed' next Financial Accounts report will be released on September 16, 2016.  Stay tuned for the updated figures...

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE --> SITEMAP <--