Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for DECEMBER 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (December, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 92.0

• Actual: 89.1

================

Previous Month (revised): 92.9

• Change from Previous Month: -4.09% (-3.8 point)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Despite an upward revision in November related to the end of the shutdown, consumer confidence fell again in December and remained well below this year’s January peak. Four of five components of the overall index fell, while one was at a level signaling notable weakness,' said  Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

The Present Situation Index declined as net views on current business conditions were negative for the first time since September 2024, a month that included a labor market scare and deadly hurricanes. Perceptions of employment conditions edged lower as the labor market differential -- the share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ minus the share saying jobs are ‘hard to get’ -- continued to flag. Two of the three Expectations Index components dipped in December. November’s nosedive in expectations for business conditions six months from now mostly reversed in December but remained negative. Expectations for labor market conditions were gloomier, and the outlook for household incomes was less positive.

Among demographic groups, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence dipped among all age groups in December, although consumers under 35 continued to be more confident than consumers age 35 and older. There were few generational differences, as confidence among all generations trended downward in the month, with only the Silent Generation becoming more hopeful. Millennials and Gen Z remained the most optimistic of all generations surveyed. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis fell for nearly all brackets, except for those earning less than $15K and more than $125K. Still, consumers earning less than $15K remained the least optimistic among all income groups. Confidence continued to fall in December among all political affiliations (Democrats, Republicans, and Independents).

Peterson added: 'Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and income, tariffs and trade, and politics. However, December saw increases in mentions of immigration, war, and topics related to personal finances -- including interest rates, taxes and income, banks, and insurance. The responses continued to skew pessimistic but less so than November, potentially due to fewer negative comments about prices and inflation, politics, as well as a rebound in positive responses about interest rates. Notably, the Federal Reserve Board cut monetary policy rates on December 10 for a third time in 2025, which landed in the second half of the survey sample interval.'

Nonetheless, the share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise were on net higher, with a drop in the proportion expecting lower rates. Consumers’ median and average 12-month inflation expectations both retreated in December after an uptick in November. The balance of consumers’ expectations for stock prices twelve months from now -- higher minus lower -- was the most positive since January 2025..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

DECEMBER 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for DECEMBER 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for December, 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 52.9

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +3.73% (+1.9 points)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -28.51% (-21.1 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for November 2025: 51.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for December 2024: 74.0

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment confirmed its early month reading, inching up less than two index points from November, within the margin of error. While lower-income consumers posted gains, sentiment for higher-income  consumers was little changed. Buying conditions for durable goods fell for the fifth straight month, whereas expectations for personal finances and business conditions rose in December. Labor market expectations lifted a bit this month, though a solid majority of 63% of consumers still expects unemployment to continue rising during the next year. Despite some signs of improvement to close out the year, sentiment remains nearly 30% below December 2024, as pocketbook issues continue to dominate consumer views of the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased for the fourth consecutive month to 4.2%. This is the lowest reading in 11 months but is still above the 3.3% seen in January. Long-run inflation expectations eased from 3.4% last month to 3.2% in December, matching the January 2025 reading. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8 and 3.2% last year, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020..."

=========

CHART: Post-Pandemic Frustration
 with High Prices Persists Even
When Inflation Expectations Soften
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for DECEMBER 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for December, 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 52.0

• Actual: 53.3

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +4.51% (+2.3 point)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -27.97% (-20.7 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for November 2025: 51.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for December 2024: 74.0

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment lifted 2.3 index points in early December, within the margin of error. This month’s increase was concentrated primarily among younger consumers. Overall, while views of current conditions were little changed, expectations improved, led by a 13% rise in expected personal finances, with improvements visible across age, income, education, and political affiliation. Still, December’s reading on expected personal finances is nearly 12% below the beginning of the year. Similarly, labor market expectations improved a touch but remained relatively dismal. Consumers see modest improvements from November on a few dimensions, but the overall tenor of views is broadly somber, as consumers continue to cite the burden of high prices.

Looking to the future, year-ahead inflation expectations decreased from 4.5% last month to 4.1% this month, the lowest reading since January 2025. This marks four consecutive months of declines, but short-run inflation expectations are still above the 3.3% seen in January. Long-run inflation expectations softened from 3.4% last month to 3.2% in December, matching the January 2025 reading. In comparison, 2024 readings ranged between 2.8 and 3.2%, while the readings in 2019 and 2020 were below 2.8%. Inflation uncertainty over both time horizons -- as measured by the interquartile range of responses -- remains higher than January of this year..."

=========

CHART: Consumer Sentiment

Current Conditions Index
December 2025 UPDATE

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for NOVEMBER 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (November, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 92.0

• Actual: 88.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 95.5

• Change from Previous Month: -7.12% (-6.8 point)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. 'All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions.

The labor market differential -- the share of consumers who say jobs are 'plentiful' minus the share saying 'hard to get' -- dipped again in November after a brief respite in October from its year-to-date decline.

All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November. Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now.

Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

NOVEMBER 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for NOVEMBER 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for November 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 51.0

• Actual: 51.0

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -4.85% (-2.6 points)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -28.97% (-20.8 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for October 2025: 53.6
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for November 2024: 71.8

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was little changed this month with a 2.6 index point decrease from October that is within the margin of error. After the federal shutdown ended, sentiment lifted slightly from its mid-month reading. However, consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes.

This month, current personal finances and buying conditions for durables both plunged more than 10%, whereas expectations for the future improved modestly. By the end of the month, sentiment for consumers with the largest stock holdings lost the gains seen at the preliminary reading. This group’s sentiment dropped about 2 index points from October, likely a consequence of the stock market declines seen over the past two weeks.

Year-ahead inflation expectations inched down from 4.6% last month to 4.5% this month. This marks three consecutive months of declines, but short-run inflation expectations still remain above the 3.3% seen in January. Long-run inflation expectations softened from 3.9% last month to 3.4% in November.

These expectations are now modestly above the 3.2% January 2025 reading. Despite these improvements in the future trajectory of inflation, consumers continue to report that their personal finances now are weighed down by the present state of high prices..."

=========

CHART: Consumers, Especially Younger Ones,
Perceive Rising Risks of Job Loss
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for OCTOBER 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (October, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 94.6

================

Previous Month (revised): 95.6

• Change from Previous Month: -1.05% (-1.0 point)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'Changes to the individual subcomponents were also limited and largely cancelled each other out.

The Present Situation Index regained some strength after September’s drop. Consumers’ view of current business conditions inched upward, while their appraisal of current job availability improved for the first time since December 2024.

On the other hand, all three components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future future job availability and future business conditions while optimism about future income retreated slightly.'

Guichard added: 'Consumers’ write-in responses were led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy.

References to tariffs declined further this month but remained elevated. Mentions of jobs and employment eased somewhat after picking up in September.

The write-in comments remained mostly negative overall, but less so than in previous months. References to US politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

OCTOBER 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for OCTOBER 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for October 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 55.0

• Actual: 53.6

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -2.72% (-1.5 points)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -23.97% (-16.9 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for September 2025: 55.1
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for October 2024: 70.5

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was little changed this month, slipping a scant 1.5 index points from September. A modest increase in sentiment among younger consumers was offset by decreases among middle-age and older consumers. Current personal finances inched up, while expected personal finances receded. Overall, consumers perceive few material changes in economic circumstances from last month; inflation and high prices remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds.

There was little evidence this month that consumers connect the federal government shutdown to the economy. Only about 2% spontaneously referenced the shutdown during this month’s interviews, compared with the 10% of consumers who did so in January 2019 during that 35-day shutdown.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ebbed from 4.7% last month to 4.6% this month. These expectations are currently midway between the readings seen a year ago and the highs seen this year in May in the wake of the initial announcements of major tariff changes. Long-run inflation expectations increased from 3.7% last month to 3.9% this month but remains below this year’s high point seen in April.

This month’s increase in long-run inflation expectations was driven primarily by independents and Republicans. Inflation uncertainty -- as measured by the interquartile range of expectations -- ticked up for both time horizons this month..."

=========

CHART: Concerns Over High Interest Rates
 for Poor Buying Conditions for Major
 Purchases Fell During October 2025

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for October 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for October, 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 55.0

• Actual: 55.0

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -0.18% (-0.1 point)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -21.99% (-15.5 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for September 2025: 55.1
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for October 2024: 70.5

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment moved sideways this month. At 55 index points, sentiment is virtually unchanged from September. Improvements this month in current personal finances and year-ahead business conditions were offset by declines in expectations for future personal finances as well as current buying conditions for durables.

Overall, consumers perceive very few changes in the outlook for the economy from last month. Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds.

At this time, consumers do not expect meaningful improvement in these factors. Meanwhile, interviews reveal little evidence that the ongoing federal government shutdown has moved consumers’ views of the economy thus far.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ebbed from 4.7% last month to a still-high 4.6% this month. Long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.7%. Inflation expectations for both time horizons are about midway between the readings seen a year ago and the highs seen this year in April and May in the wake of the initial announcements of major tariff changes..."

=========

CHART: Since Converging in May 2025,
 Sentiment Lifted for Consumers with Large Stock
Holdings and Fell for Non-Stockholders

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for SEPTEMBER 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (September, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 94.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 97.8

• Change from Previous Month: -3.68% (-3.6 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The present situation component registered its largest drop in a year. Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings. Expectations also weakened in September, but to a lesser extent. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions but optimism about future  income increased, mitigating the overall decline in the Expectations Index.'

Among demographic groups, confidence rose for consumers under 35 years old but declined for consumers over 35. The evolution of confidence by income group was mixed, with no clear pattern emerging. By income, confidence remained above its April low for all consumer cohorts besides households making between $25K and $35K and those making above $200K. By partisan affiliation, confidence improved slightly among both Republicans and Democrats but dropped substantially among Independents.  

Guichard added: 'Consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to prices and inflation rose in September, regaining its top position as the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy. References to tariffs declined this month, but remained elevated and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices. Nonetheless, consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations inched down, to 5.8% in September from 6.1% in August. This is still notably above 5.0%, the level at the end of 2024.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
SEPTEMBER 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for September 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for September 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 55.5

• Actual: 55.1

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -5.33% (-3.1 points)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -21.4% (-15.0 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for August 2025: 58.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for September 2024: 70.1

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading and eased about 5% from last month but remains above the low readings seen in April and May of this year. Although September’s decline was relatively modest, it was still seen across a broad swath of the population, across groups by age, income, and education, and all five index components.

A key exception: sentiment for consumers with larger stock holdings held steady in September, while for those with smaller or no holdings, sentiment decreased.

This month, sentiment moved down about 9% for independents and 4% for Republicans, whereas it lifted this month for Democrats. Nationally, not only did macroeconomic expectations fall, particularly for labor markets and business conditions, but personal expectations did as well, with a softening outlook for their own incomes and personal finances.

Consumers continue to express frustration over the persistence of high prices, with 44% spontaneously mentioning that high prices are eroding their personal finances, the highest reading in a year.

Interviews this month highlight the fact that consumers feel pressure both from the prospect of higher inflation as well as the risk of weaker labor markets.

Year-ahead inflation expectations receded slightly to 4.7% from 4.8% last month. Long-run inflation expectations moved up for the second straight month to 3.7% in September, but stand much lower than the 4.4% spike seen in April..."

=========

CHART: Uncertainty Over Path of Inflation Plunges 
Since May 2025, but Remains Historically High 
SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for September 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for September, 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 58.0

• Actual: 55.4

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• Change from Previous Month: -4.81% (-2.8 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -21.0% (-14.7 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for August 2025: 58.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for September 2024: 70.1

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment moved down less than three index points in early September. This month’s easing in economic views was particularly strong among lower and middle income consumers. Buying conditions for durables improved, while all other index components fell.

Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labor markets, and inflation.

Likewise, consumers perceive risks to their pocketbooks as well; current and expected personal finances both eased about 8% this month.

Trade policy remains highly salient to consumers, with about 60% of consumers providing unprompted comments about tariffs during interviews, little changed from last month.

Still, sentiment remains above April and May 2025 readings, immediately after the initial announcement of reciprocal tariffs.

Year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 4.8%, unchanged from August. Long-run inflation expectations moved up for the second straight month to 3.9% in September. This current reading is considerably lower than the 4.4% seen in April..."

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CHART: Consumers Continue to Expect Unemployment
to Rise, with Heightened Risks of Personal Job Loss
AUGUST 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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