Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for June 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for June 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 60.5

• Actual: 60.7

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• Change from Previous Month: +16.28% (+8.5 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -11.00% (-7.5 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for May 2025: 52.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for June 2024: 68.2

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment surged 16% from May in its first increase in six months -- confirming the mid-month reading -- but remains well below the post-election bounce seen in December 2024.

The improvement was broad-based across numerous facets of the economy, with expectations for personal finances and business conditions climbing about 20% or more.

Despite June’s gains, however, sentiment remains about 18% below December 2024, right after the election; consumer views are still broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come.

Consumers continue to be concerned about the potential impact of tariffs, but at this time they do not appear to be connecting developments in the Middle East with the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations plummeted from 6.6% last month to 5.0% this month. Long-run inflation expectations receded for the second straight month, falling back from 4.2% in May to 4.0% in June. Both readings are the lowest in three to four months. Consumers’ fears about the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation softened somewhat in June.

Still, inflation expectations remain above readings seen throughout the second half of 2024, reflecting widespread beliefs that risks to inflation have not fully abated..."

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CHART: Sentiment Lifts for the First Time in Six Months;
Remains Well Below December 2024
JUNE 2025 UPDATE
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

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