Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for SEPTEMBER 2026

Here are the FINAL Results of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS), for September, 2026:

Predicted: 48.0

• Actual: 48.1

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• Change from Previous Month: -6.96% (-3.6 points)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -12.7% (-7.0 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for August, 2026: 51.7
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for September, 2025: 55.1

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment ticked down less than four index points in September, reaching the lowest reading in four months and down 15% from January 2026. Views of current and year-ahead expected personal finances both weakened about 10% this month, with concerns over high prices continuing to climb.

Buying conditions for durables improved a bit, in part due to a perception that completing such purchases now would help consumers avoid higher prices in the future. The short-run outlook for business conditions plunged amid renewed worries that elevated fuel prices and re-escalating trade disputes could pass through to the economy as a whole.

Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year. After particularly large declines in sentiment this month, Republican sentiment is now 20% lower than January 2026; Democrats are down 13% over the same period.

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% last month to 4.6% this month, the highest reading since June. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran [invasion] began, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, ending three consecutive months at 3.3%. These expectations remain higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%..."

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 CHART: Index of Consumer Sentiment
Final Results
September 2026 UPDATE

 

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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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My Uncle Got Sucked Into A "Home Depot" Phishing Scam

So, I am on WhatsApp, checking out some family conversations, when I receive a message from my uncle.  Message reads:

"The Home Depot 40th Anniversary.  Click to enter to participate in the survey.  Have a chance to win $ 8,000! BeneficialYear.TOP"

Right away, red flags go up.  Looks extremely suspicious, but I click the link anyway, because I want to see what the scam looks like, so that I can warn others.

Here's a capture of the URL, and the page it took me to:

www.FedPrimeRate.com: Phishing Scam Image 1

=======

When I reloaded the page, I was taken to a totally different URL:

www.FedPrimeRate.com: Phishing Scam Image 2

First of all, if this is a survey from The Home Depot, then why on Earth would I be redirected to 2 different URLs? And why would one of the domain names use a .CN top level name, meaning it's registered in China?

Moreover: all the navigation links don't work, and the same if you try to "up" or "down" vote in the comments section.

As I investigated further, I found that Firefox is aware, and warning folks:

www.FedPrimeRate.com:
Mozilla FireFox Warning
- Deceptive Site Ahead

=======

Please people: don't forward suspicious messages to friends and family without checking them out.  You could end up doing serious harm to people you care about.

>>>   CLICK HERE FOR MORE SAFETY WARNINGS   <<<

>>>   CLICK HERE for SCAM ALERT: HOW TO AVOID BANKING AND OTHER TRENDING SCAMS; KNOW THE RED FLAGS   <<<

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Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for SEPTEMBER 2026

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for September, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 48.0

• Actual: 47.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -7.54% (-3.9 points)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -13.25% (-7.3 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for August, 2026: 51.7
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for September, 2025: 55.1

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment receded less than 4 index points for the second consecutive month of decreases. Democrats and Republicans alike posted sizable declines, while independents were little changed from August.

Year-ahead expectations for both personal finances and business conditions plunged. With a resurgence in fuel prices and trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressures on their pocketbooks to come.

Five-year expected business conditions remained stable at readings well below their historical average, suggesting that consumers believe that emerging risks this month may not have further worsened the long-run outlook.

Overall, sentiment is now 16% below February, prior to the start of the Iran [invasion], and 13% lower than a year ago.

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% last month to 4.6% this month, the highest reading since June.

The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran [invasion] began, along with all 2024 readings.

Long-run inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, ending three consecutive months at 3.3%. These expectations remain higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%..."

=========

CHART: Gasoline and Tariff Concerns 
Both Drive Recent Changes
 in Inflation Expectations
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Existing Home Sales During AUGUST 2026

Existing Home Sales report for August, 2026 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,060,000

• Actual: 3,980,000

======================

•  Change from Previous Month: -1.97% (-80,000 homes)
  
  
•  Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): -1.24% (-50,000 homes)

======================

• Inventory: 1,620,000 homes.

(4.9 months supply | +90,000 [+5.88%] homes Y-o-Y.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

• Median Price: $429,100
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +1.6% (+$6,700)

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for New Home Sales Data.
  
  
• Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions, so it's not surprising to see a mild dip in home buying activity due to high mortgage rates,' said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. 'Still, home prices are rising, and existing home sales are actually up 1.6% year-to-date through the first eight months of the year. Homebuying demand, despite higher interest rates, is no doubt being supported by rising wages, which grew 3.1% in August, along with 643,000 net new jobs added since the start of the year. Job creation and wage growth typically drive housing demand.'

Yun continued, 'The number of months it would take to exhaust the total inventory at the current sales pace has grown to 4.9 months’ supply -- its highest level in over ten years. The ample supply of homes for sale on the market is giving homebuyers better opportunities to negotiate..."

================== 

   

CHART: 15- & 30-Year
Mortgage Rates History, USA

==================

• Click here to view the NAR® data.

==================

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for AUGUST 2026

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for August, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 51.0

• Actual: 51.7

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -6.34% (-3.5 points)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -11.17% (-6.5 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for July, 2026: 55.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for August, 2025: 58.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment confirmed its early month reading, falling about 6% from last month and landing about 11% below a year ago amid continued worries that inflation will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Sentiment declines in August were seen for all political groups and were particularly acute among Republicans.

Moreover, groups who are typically less-equipped to absorb increases in cost of living also exhibited stronger decreases in sentiment, including older consumers, lower- and middle-income consumers, and those with no stock holdings.

With ongoing policy uncertainty, including the Iran invasion, consumers anticipate further increases in gasoline prices both in the short and long run. In addition to the pocketbook issues that have been central to consumers’ views of the economy, they are increasingly worried that prospects elsewhere in the economy could be weakening.

Expected year-ahead business conditions fell back 10%, along with a 13% drop for the five-year horizon.

Any re-escalation of trade tensions will likely exacerbate these trends. This release covers interviews completed between July 28 and August 24.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down from 4.2% in July to 4.0%. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran invasion began, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run  inflation expectations held steady at 3.3% for the third consecutive month, remaining a bit higher than its 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%..."

=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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New Home Sales During JULY 2026

The July, 2026 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department:

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Previous Month (revised): 678,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 607,000

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• Change from 1-Month Previous: -71,000 units (-10.47%)
  
  
• Change from 1-Year Previous: -41,000 units (-6.33%)

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home
During JULY, 2026: $393,800

• Change from One-Year Previous: -$3,500 (-0.88%)

 ***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During JULY, 2026: $508,800

• Change from One-Year Previous: +$26,000 (+5.39%)

------------------------------------------------------
Inventory: 488,000 (-8,000 units / -1.61% Year-on-Year)

• 9.6 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

------------------------------------------------------

================================

CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home

JULY, 2026 Update

================================

• CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for The Monthly Existing Home Sales Report.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

================================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for AUGUST 2026

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (August, 2026) was released by The Conference Board®:

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Predicted: 90.0

• Actual: 89.4

================

Previous Month (revised): 90.2

• Change from Previous Month: -0.89% (-0.8 point)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,' said  Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. 'The Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory, which was offset by a moderate rise in the Present Situation Index after declining in the past three months.

Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were mildly positive. Perceptions of the current labor market improved, reversing three months of moderate decline. Looking ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and the labor market over the next six months. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI)

AUGUST 2026 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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