Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for MAY 2026
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for May, 2026 was released today:
Predicted: 45.0
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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.
The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.
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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
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Predicted: 45.0
- Actual: 44.8
- Change from Previous Month: -10.04% (-5.0 points)
- Change from 12-Months Previous: -14.18% (-7.4 points)
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- Final ICS Reading for April 2026: 49.8
- Final ICS Reading for May 2025: 52.2
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From Today's Report:
"...Consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to boost gasoline prices. Sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022. The cost of living continues to be a first-order concern, with 57% of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month.
Lower-income consumers and those without college degrees posted particularly strong sentiment declines; these groups are more sensitive to increases in the cost of gas and other essentials.
Independents and Republicans saw decreases in sentiment, with both groups reaching their lowest readings of the current presidential administration.
Meanwhile, sentiment of Democrats was little changed from last month. Critically, consumers appear worried that inflation will increase and proliferate beyond fuel prices, even in the long run.
Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up from 4.7% last month to 4.8% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February 2026 prior to the start of the Iran invasion, along with all 2024 readings.
Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 3.5% in April to 3.9% in May, notably higher than the 2.8% to 3.2% range seen in 2024. This month’s increase in long-run expectations reflects sizable jumps among independents and Republicans. For the latter group, long-run inflation expectations are currently more than double their February 2025 reading on a monthly basis..."
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CHART: Short-Run Expectations Worsened Since
February 2026, Long-Run Expectations Following Suit
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February 2026, Long-Run Expectations Following Suit
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:
- "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these
days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are
better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
- "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your
family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or
just about the same as now?"
- "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do
you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
- "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the
country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five
years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
- "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture,
a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally
speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major
household items?"
- Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.
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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.
The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.
=========
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
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posted by Steve Brown | 6/09/2026 03:22:00 AM
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