Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for DECEMBER 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (December, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

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Predicted: 92.0

• Actual: 89.1

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Previous Month (revised): 92.9

• Change from Previous Month: -4.09% (-3.8 point)
  

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Despite an upward revision in November related to the end of the shutdown, consumer confidence fell again in December and remained well below this year’s January peak. Four of five components of the overall index fell, while one was at a level signaling notable weakness,' said  Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

The Present Situation Index declined as net views on current business conditions were negative for the first time since September 2024, a month that included a labor market scare and deadly hurricanes. Perceptions of employment conditions edged lower as the labor market differential -- the share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ minus the share saying jobs are ‘hard to get’ -- continued to flag. Two of the three Expectations Index components dipped in December. November’s nosedive in expectations for business conditions six months from now mostly reversed in December but remained negative. Expectations for labor market conditions were gloomier, and the outlook for household incomes was less positive.

Among demographic groups, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence dipped among all age groups in December, although consumers under 35 continued to be more confident than consumers age 35 and older. There were few generational differences, as confidence among all generations trended downward in the month, with only the Silent Generation becoming more hopeful. Millennials and Gen Z remained the most optimistic of all generations surveyed. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis fell for nearly all brackets, except for those earning less than $15K and more than $125K. Still, consumers earning less than $15K remained the least optimistic among all income groups. Confidence continued to fall in December among all political affiliations (Democrats, Republicans, and Independents).

Peterson added: 'Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and income, tariffs and trade, and politics. However, December saw increases in mentions of immigration, war, and topics related to personal finances -- including interest rates, taxes and income, banks, and insurance. The responses continued to skew pessimistic but less so than November, potentially due to fewer negative comments about prices and inflation, politics, as well as a rebound in positive responses about interest rates. Notably, the Federal Reserve Board cut monetary policy rates on December 10 for a third time in 2025, which landed in the second half of the survey sample interval.'

Nonetheless, the share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise were on net higher, with a drop in the proportion expecting lower rates. Consumers’ median and average 12-month inflation expectations both retreated in December after an uptick in November. The balance of consumers’ expectations for stock prices twelve months from now -- higher minus lower -- was the most positive since January 2025..."

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Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

DECEMBER 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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A "For Food" Payment Request Scam Attempt on Cash.APP®

www.FedPrimeRate.com: "For Food"
Payment Request Scam
Attempt on Cash.APP®

Here's a first: Someone trying to scam me via Cash APP®.

$25.00 for food, for someone with the name Chivo Valluco. Fake name?  Sounds pretty darn fake to me! 😏

It was just a matter of time, since my business Cash App ID ($cashtag) is visible on the Internet, for all to see.

Blocking the scammer was a quick and easy.

Some of these Cash.APP scams are very crafty and sophisticated.  Here's a clip from a Forbes® article:

"...Sometimes, they even send money to the Cash App user and then say it was an accident. Then they ask for a refund, but the money was initially sent from a hacked or stolen account. The user sends back the money, but now they're left with the headache of dealing with the original fraud...."

Yikes! #Beware! 😓

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for DECEMBER 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for December, 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 52.9

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• Change from Previous Month: +3.73% (+1.9 points)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -28.51% (-21.1 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for November 2025: 51.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for December 2024: 74.0

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment confirmed its early month reading, inching up less than two index points from November, within the margin of error. While lower-income consumers posted gains, sentiment for higher-income  consumers was little changed. Buying conditions for durable goods fell for the fifth straight month, whereas expectations for personal finances and business conditions rose in December. Labor market expectations lifted a bit this month, though a solid majority of 63% of consumers still expects unemployment to continue rising during the next year. Despite some signs of improvement to close out the year, sentiment remains nearly 30% below December 2024, as pocketbook issues continue to dominate consumer views of the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased for the fourth consecutive month to 4.2%. This is the lowest reading in 11 months but is still above the 3.3% seen in January. Long-run inflation expectations eased from 3.4% last month to 3.2% in December, matching the January 2025 reading. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8 and 3.2% last year, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020..."

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CHART: Post-Pandemic Frustration
 with High Prices Persists Even
When Inflation Expectations Soften
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

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Existing Home Sales During NOVEMBER 2025

Existing Home Sales report for November 2025 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

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Previous Month: 4,110,000

• Actual: 4,130,000

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•  Change from Previous Month: +0.49% (+20,000 homes)
  
  
•  Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): -0.96% (-40,000 homes)

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• Inventory: 1,430,000 homes.

(4.2 months supply | +100,000 [+7.52%] homes Y-o-Y.)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Median Price: $409,200
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +1.19% (+$4,800)

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• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for New Home Sales Data.
  
  
• Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

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From Today's Report:

"...'Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.'

'Wage growth is outpacing home price gains, which improves housing affordability. Still, future affordability could be hampered if housing supply fails to keep pace with demand,' Yun added.

'As has been the case throughout the year, single-family home sales outperformed condominium sales in November. The typical price of a sold condo was 13.5% lower than the typical price of a single-family home. However, the purchase price does not include the condominium association fees, which are rising and making these purchases more expensive.'..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales

NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2025 REALTORS®)

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• Click here to view the NAR® data.

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My Uncle Got Sucked Into A "Home Depot" Phishing Scam

So, I am on WhatsApp, checking out some family conversations, when I receive a message from my uncle.  Message reads:

"The Home Depot 40th Anniversary.  Click to enter to participate in the survey.  Have a chance to win $ 8,000! BeneficialYear.TOP"

Right away, red flags go up.  Looks extremely suspicious, but I click the link anyway, because I want to see what the scam looks like, so that I can warn others.

Here's a capture of the URL, and the page it took me to:

www.FedPrimeRate.com: Phishing Scam Image 1

=======

When I reloaded the page, I was taken to a totally different URL:

www.FedPrimeRate.com: Phishing Scam Image 2

First of all, if this is a survey from The Home Depot, then why on Earth would I be redirected to 2 different URLs? And why would one of the domain names use a .CN top level name, meaning it's registered in China?

Moreover: all the navigation links don't work, and the same if you try to "up" or "down" vote in the comments section.

As I investigated further, I found that Firefox is aware, and warning folks:

www.FedPrimeRate.com:
Mozilla FireFox Warning
- Deceptive Site Ahead

=======

Please people: don't forward suspicious messages to friends and family without checking them out.  You could end up doing serious harm to people you care about.

>>>   CLICK HERE FOR MORE SAFETY WARNINGS   <<<

>>>   CLICK HERE for SCAM ALERT: HOW TO AVOID BANKING AND OTHER TRENDING SCAMS; KNOW THE RED FLAGS   <<<

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Powerball® Jackpot Is $1.5 Billion for the Saturday, December 20, 2025 Drawing

Powerball

Well, looks like I have contracted the "lotto fever" once again...😱

The Powerball® jackpot for tomorrow's (December 20, 2025) drawing now stands at an estimated $1.5 billion.

So, just for fun, I am playing a few lines with NY.Lotto.com 😌

The Odds

The overall odds of winning a Powerball prize are 1 in 24.87.

The odds of winning the jackpot are
 1 in 292,201,338.😐

Good luck to all those who are giving this one a shot... ✌🍀💥👌

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A Sophisticated Money Transfer Scam by Scammers Using Zelle®

This New York Times article was written by Michael Wilson:

 

A Sophisticated Money Transfer
 Scam by Scammers Using Zelle®

I’ve Written About Loads of Scams. This One Almost Got Me.
“Please hold,” the caller said, “while I transfer you to my supervisor.”

It was a Wednesday in August, a little before lunch. The call came from a 212 number, which for a New Yorker could be almost anything -- the school, the pharmacy, the roof guy -- so I answered.

The caller asked for me by name and stated in measured tones that he was from Chase® Bank and he wanted to verify transfers being made from my account to someone in Texas.

Wrong number, I said. I don’t have a Chase account.

But one was recently opened in your name, he replied, with two Zelle transfers. And minutes ago, someone tried to transfer those funds, $2,100, to San Antonio.

Now, this carried the whiff of plausibility. I’m one of some 150 million people who have access to Zelle®, the payments platform that lets you send and receive money from your phone. But my scam radar was also fully operational and pinging.

“How do I know this isn’t a scam?” I asked, sounding like that guy in every movie who asks an undercover cop if he’s a cop.

He had a quick answer. Look at the number showing on your phone and Google it, he replied. “Now look up the Chase branch at 3 Times Square,” he instructed. “See the office phone number?” I did, and it matched the one on my phone’s screen.

Then he added, “Here at Chase, we’ll never ask for your personal information or passwords.” On the contrary, he gave me more information -- two “cancellation codes” and a long case number with four letters and 10 digits.

That’s when he offered to transfer me to his supervisor. That simple phrase, familiar from countless customer-service calls, draped a cloak of corporate competence over this unfolding drama. His supervisor. I mean, would a scammer have a supervisor?

The line went mute for a few seconds, and a second man greeted me with a voice of authority. “My name is Mike Wallace,” he said, and asked for my case number from the first guy. I dutifully read it back to him.

“Yes, yes, I see,” the man said, as if looking at a screen. He explained the situation -- new account, Zelle® transfers, Texas -- and suggested we reverse the attempted withdrawal.

I’m not proud to report that by now, he had my full attention, and I was ready to proceed with whatever plan he had in mind. 

Internet fraud has grown steadily, with 2024 setting new record-high losses -- “a staggering $16.6 billion,” the F.B.I.’s annual Internet Crime Complaint Center wrote in a recent report. These crimes include elaborate cryptocurrency schemes and ransomware attacks on entire cities, but phishing and spoofing -- the cloning of an actual phone number -- still lead the list of some 860,000 complaints last year.

Are these scams entering some sort of improved, 2.0 version of the old-school Nigerian-prince-type setup?

“I wouldn’t call it an improvement,” said Paul Roberts, an assistant special agent in charge of the New York offices of the F.B.I. “It’s an adaptation. As the public becomes more aware of schemes, they need to adjust.”

The man claiming to be a Chase supervisor asked me to open Zelle. Where it says, “Enter an amount,” he instructed me to type $2,100, the amount of the withdrawals he was going to help me reverse.

Then, in the “Enter phone number or email” window -- where the other party in a Zelle transaction goes -- he instructed me to type the case number the first caller had given me, but to leave out the four letters. Numbers only. I dutifully entered the 10 digits, but my skepticism was finally showing up.


“Mr. Wallace,” I said, somewhat apologetically. “This case number sure looks like a phone number, and I’m about to send that number $2,100.”

No, he replied, because of this important next step. In the window that says “What’s this for? ” where you might add “babysitter” or “block party donation,” he told me to enter a unique code that would alert his team that this transaction should be reversed.

It was incredibly long, and he read it out slowly -- “S, T, P, P, six, seven, one, two …” -- and I typed along. Now and then he even threw in some military-style lingo: “… zero, zero, Charlie, X-ray, nine, eight …”

Once we were done, he had me read the whole 19-character code back to him.

Now, he said, press “Send.”

But one word above the “What’s this for?” box containing our special code with the X-ray and the Charlie kept bothering me: “Optional.”

Then I had an idea, and asked the supervisor if he was calling from 3 Times Square. Yes, he said.

I’ll come to you, I said, and we’ll fix this together.

By then it will probably be too late, he said.

“I’ll call you back,” I said, and he said that would be fine, and I hung up.

I called my bank and confirmed what I’d come to suspect. There had been no recent Zelle activity.

My jaw dropped when I went back and looked at my call history. Sixteen minutes — that’s how long they had me on the line.

In decades as a crime reporter, I’ve covered many, many scams -- psychic scams, sweetheart swindles, real-estate scams, even the obscure “nanny scam,” where a fake mother reaches out to a young caregiver to try to rip her off.

I should be able to spot a scam in under 16 seconds, I thought -- but 16 minutes?

I wanted to know why this scam seemed to work so much better than others...

 
The full article continues here 
(New York Times subscription required)

  

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