Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for AUGUST 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (August, 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 97.4

================

Previous Month (revised): 98.7

• Change from Previous Month: -1.32% (-1.3 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The present situation and the expectation components both weakened. Notably, consumers’ appraisal of current job availability declined for the eighth consecutive month, but stronger views of current business conditions mitigated the retreat in the Present Situation Index.

Meanwhile, pessimism about future job availability inched up and optimism about future income faded slightly. However, these were partly offset by stronger expectations for future business conditions.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
AUGUST 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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New Home Sales During JULY 2025

The July, 2025 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Previous Month (revised): 656,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 652,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: -4,000 units (-0.61%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: -58,000 units (-8.17%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During July, 2025: $403,800

• Change from 1 Year Previous: -$25,200 (-5.87%)

 ***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During July, 2025: $487,300

• Change from 1 Year Previous: -$25,900 (-5.05%)

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Inventory: 499,000 (+34,000 units / +7.31% Year-on-Year)

• 9.2 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

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================================

CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
JULY 2025 Update

================================

• CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for The Monthly Existing Home Sales Report.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

================================

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Existing Home Sales During JULY 2025

Existing Home Sales report for July 2025 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 3,930,000

• Actual: 4,010,000

======================

•  Change from Previous Month: +2.04% (+80,000 homes)
  
  
•  Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): +0.75% (+30,000 homes)

======================

• Inventory: 1,550,000 homes.

(4.6 months supply | +210,000 [+15.67%] homes Y-o-Y.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Median Price: $422,400
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +0.24% (+$1,000)

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==========

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for New Home Sales Data.
  
  
• Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices. Condominium sales increased in the South region, where prices had been falling for the past year.'

'Near-zero growth in home prices suggests that roughly half the country is experiencing price reductions. Overall, homeowners are doing well financially. Only 2% of sales were foreclosures or short sales -- essentially a historic low. The market's health is supported by a cumulative 49% home price appreciation for a typical American homeowner from pre-COVID July 2019 to July this year,' Dr. Yun continued.

'Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.'..."

==================

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
JULY 2025 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2025 REALTORS®)

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==================

• Click here to view the NAR® data.

==================

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for August 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for August 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 60.0

• Actual: 58.6

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• Change from Previous Month: -5.02% (-3.1 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -13.7% (-9.3 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for July 2025: 61.7
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for August 2024: 67.9

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell back about 5% in August, declining for the first time in four months. This deterioration largely stems from rising worries about inflation. Buying conditions for durables plunged 14%, its lowest reading in a year, on the basis of high prices. Current personal finances declined modestly amid growing concerns about purchasing power.

In contrast, expected personal finances inched up a touch along with a slight firming in income expectations, which remain subdued. Overall, consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April when reciprocal tariffs were announced and then paused.

However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future.

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.5% last month to 4.9% this month. This increase was seen across multiple demographic groups and all three political affiliations. Long-run  inflation expectations also lifted from 3.4% in July to 3.9% in August.

This month ended two consecutive months of receding inflation for short-run expectations and three straight months for long-run expectations. Still, both readings remain well below the highs seen briefly in April and May 2025..."

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CHART: Unemployment and Inflation Expectations Worsen
in August, Partially Offsetting Recent Improvements
AUGUST 2025 Preliminary UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for JULY 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (July, 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 97.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 95.2

• Change from Previous Month: -2.10% (-2.0 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'In July, pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence.

All three components of the Expectation Index improved, with consumers feeling less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, and more optimistic about future income.

Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of the present situation was little changed. They were a tad more positive about current business conditions in July than in June. However, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since March 2021. Notably, 18.9% of consumers indicated that jobs were hard to get in July, up from 14.5% in January.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
JULY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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New Home Sales During JUNE 2025

The June, 2025 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

------------------------------------------------------

Previous Month (revised): 623,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 627,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: +4,000 units (+0.64%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: -44,000 units (-6.56%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During June, 2025: $401,800

• Change from 1 Year Previous: -$12,200 (-2.95%)

 ***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During June, 2025: $501,000

• Change from 1 Year Previous: +$5,500 (+1.11%)

------------------------------------------------------
Inventory: 511,000 (+40,000 units / +8.49% Year-on-Year)

• 9.8 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

------------------------------------------------------

================================

CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
JUNE 2025 Update

================================

• CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for The Monthly Existing Home Sales Report.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

================================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

================================

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Existing Home Sales During JUNE 2025

 Existing Home Sales report for June 2025 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,040,000

• Actual: 3,930,000

======================

•  Change from Previous Month: -2.72% (-110,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago (Y-o-Y): FLAT (No Change)

======================

• Inventory: 1,530,000 homes.

(4.7 months supply | +210,000 [+15.9%] homes Y-o-Y.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

• Median Price: $435,300 (New Record-High)
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +1.97% (+$8,400)

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for New Home Sales Data.
  
  
• Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'The record high median home price highlights how American homeowners' wealth continues to grow -- a benefit of homeownership. The average homeowner's wealth has expanded by $140,900 over the past five years,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

'Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record high home price. Home construction continues to lag population growth. This is holding back first-time home buyers from entering the market. More supply is needed to increase the share of first-time homebuyers in the coming years even though some markets appear to have a temporary oversupply at the moment.'

'High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows. If the average mortgage rates were to decline to 6%, our scenario analysis suggests an additional 160,000 renters becoming first-time homeowners and elevated sales activity from existing homeowners,' Dr. Yun continued.

'Expanding participation in the housing market will increase the mobility of the workforce and drive economic growth. If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, expect home sales to increase across the country due to strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs.'..."

==================

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
JUNE 2025 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2025 REALTORS®)

==================

==================

• Click here to view the NAR data.

==================

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