Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for JULY 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (July, 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 97.2

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Previous Month (revised): 95.2

• Change from Previous Month: -2.10% (-2.0 points)
  

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'In July, pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence.

All three components of the Expectation Index improved, with consumers feeling less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, and more optimistic about future income.

Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of the present situation was little changed. They were a tad more positive about current business conditions in July than in June. However, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since March 2021. Notably, 18.9% of consumers indicated that jobs were hard to get in July, up from 14.5% in January.'..."

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Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
JULY 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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New Home Sales During JUNE 2025

The June, 2025 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Previous Month (revised): 623,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 627,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: +4,000 units (+0.64%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: -44,000 units (-6.56%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During June, 2025: $401,800

• Change from 1 Year Previous: -$12,200 (-2.95%)

 ***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During June, 2025: $501,000

• Change from 1 Year Previous: +$5,500 (+1.11%)

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Inventory: 511,000 (+40,000 units / +8.49% Year-on-Year)

• 9.8 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
JUNE 2025 Update

================================

• CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for The Monthly Existing Home Sales Report.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

================================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Existing Home Sales During JUNE 2025

 Existing Home Sales report for June 2025 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

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Previous Month: 4,040,000

• Actual: 3,930,000

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•  Change from Previous Month: -2.72% (-110,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago (Y-o-Y): FLAT (No Change)

======================

• Inventory: 1,530,000 homes.

(4.7 months supply | +210,000 [+15.9%] homes Y-o-Y.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Median Price: $435,300 (New Record-High)
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +1.97% (+$8,400)

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==========

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for New Home Sales Data.
  
  
• Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'The record high median home price highlights how American homeowners' wealth continues to grow -- a benefit of homeownership. The average homeowner's wealth has expanded by $140,900 over the past five years," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

'Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record high home price. Home construction continues to lag population growth. This is holding back first-time home buyers from entering the market. More supply is needed to increase the share of first-time homebuyers in the coming years even though some markets appear to have a temporary oversupply at the moment.'

'High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows. If the average mortgage rates were to decline to 6%, our scenario analysis suggests an additional 160,000 renters becoming first-time homeowners and elevated sales activity from existing homeowners,' Dr. Yun continued.

'Expanding participation in the housing market will increase the mobility of the workforce and drive economic growth. If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, expect home sales to increase across the country due to strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs.'..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
JUNE 2025 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2025 REALTORS®)

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• Click here to view the NAR data.

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for June 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for June 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 60.5

• Actual: 60.7

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• Change from Previous Month: +16.28% (+8.5 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -11.00% (-7.5 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for May 2025: 52.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for June 2024: 68.2

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment surged 16% from May in its first increase in six months -- confirming the mid-month reading -- but remains well below the post-election bounce seen in December 2024.

The improvement was broad-based across numerous facets of the economy, with expectations for personal finances and business conditions climbing about 20% or more.

Despite June’s gains, however, sentiment remains about 18% below December 2024, right after the election; consumer views are still broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come.

Consumers continue to be concerned about the potential impact of tariffs, but at this time they do not appear to be connecting developments in the Middle East with the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations plummeted from 6.6% last month to 5.0% this month. Long-run inflation expectations receded for the second straight month, falling back from 4.2% in May to 4.0% in June. Both readings are the lowest in three to four months. Consumers’ fears about the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation softened somewhat in June.

Still, inflation expectations remain above readings seen throughout the second half of 2024, reflecting widespread beliefs that risks to inflation have not fully abated..."

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CHART: Sentiment Lifts for the First Time in Six Months;
Remains Well Below December 2024
JUNE 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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New Home Sales During MAY 2025

The May, 2025 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Previous Month (revised): 722,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 623,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: -99,000 units (-13.71%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: -42,000 units (-6.32%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During May, 2025: $426,600

• Change from 1 Year Previous: +$12,300 (+2.97%)

 ***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During May, 2025: $522,200

• Change from 1 Year Previous: +$22,900 (+4.59%)

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Inventory: 507,000 (+38,000 units / +8.10% Year-on-Year)

• 9.8 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

------------------------------------------------------

================================

CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
MAY 2025 Update

================================

• CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for The Monthly Existing Home Sales Report.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

================================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

================================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for JUNE 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June, 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 93.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 98.4

• Change from Previous Month: -5.49% (-5.4 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. 

Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market. The three components of the Expectations Index -- business conditions, employment prospects, and future income -- all weakened. Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
JUNE 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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Existing Home Sales During MAY 2025

Existing Home Sales report for May 2025 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,000,000

• Actual: 4,030,000

======================

•  Change from Previous Month: +0.75% (+30,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago: -0.74% (-30,000 homes)

======================

• Inventory: 1,540,000 homes.

(4.6 months supply | +260,000 [+20.31%] homes year-on-year.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

• Median Price: $422,800
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +1.34% (+$5,600)

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for New Home Sales Data.
  
  
• Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'The relatively subdued sales are largely due to persistently high mortgage rates. Lower interest rates will attract more buyers and sellers to the housing market,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'Increasing participation in the housing market will increase the mobility of the workforce and drive economic growth. If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, expect home sales across the country to increase due to strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs.'

Mortgage Rates: 6.81%: Average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as of June 18 according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.84% one week before and 6.87% one year ago..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
MAY 2025 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2025 REALTORS®)

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 ==================

• Click here to view the NAR data.

==================

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