Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for September 2025
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for September 2025 was released today:
Predicted: 55.5
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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.
The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.
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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
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Predicted: 55.5
- Actual: 55.1
- Change from Previous Month: -5.33% (-3.1 points)
- Change from 12-Months Previous: -21.4% (-15.0 points)
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- Final ICS Reading for August 2025: 58.2
- Final ICS Reading for September 2024: 70.1
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From Today's Report:
"...Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading and eased about 5% from last month but remains above the low readings seen in April and May of this year. Although September’s decline was relatively modest, it was still seen across a broad swath of the population, across groups by age, income, and education, and all five index components.
A key exception: sentiment for consumers with larger stock holdings held steady in September, while for those with smaller or no holdings, sentiment decreased.
This month, sentiment moved down about 9% for independents and 4% for Republicans, whereas it lifted this month for Democrats. Nationally, not only did macroeconomic expectations fall, particularly for labor markets and business conditions, but personal expectations did as well, with a softening outlook for their own incomes and personal finances.
Consumers continue to express frustration over the persistence of high prices, with 44% spontaneously mentioning that high prices are eroding their personal finances, the highest reading in a year.
Interviews this month highlight the fact that consumers feel pressure both from the prospect of higher inflation as well as the risk of weaker labor markets.
Year-ahead inflation expectations receded slightly to 4.7% from 4.8% last month. Long-run inflation expectations moved up for the second straight month to 3.7% in September, but stand much lower than the 4.4% spike seen in April..."
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CHART: Uncertainty Over Path of Inflation Plunges
Since May 2025, but Remains Historically High
SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE
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Since May 2025, but Remains Historically High
SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:
- "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these
days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are
better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
- "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your
family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or
just about the same as now?"
- "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do
you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
- "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the
country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five
years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
- "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture,
a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally
speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major
household items?"
- Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.
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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.
The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.
=========
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
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posted by Steve Brown | 9/26/2025 09:48:00 PM
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