Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for JANUARY 2026

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for January, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 56.4

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• Change from Previous Month: +6.62% (+3.5 points)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -21.34% (-15.3 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for December 2025: 52.9
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for January 2025: 71.7

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment lifted about 3.5 index points this month, with minor gains seen across all index components. While the overall improvement was small, it was broad based, seen across the income distribution, educational attainment, older and younger consumers, and Republicans and Democrats alike.

However, national sentiment remains more than 20% below a year ago, as consumers continue to report pressures on their purchasing power stemming from high prices and the prospect of weakening labor markets.

Aside from tariff policy, consumers do not appear to be connecting foreign developments to their views of the economy. Note that interviews for this release concluded on January 19th, two days after Trump’s social media post announcing additional tariffs on eight countries in Europe..."

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CHART: Inflation Uncertainty Down from Q2, 2025
Peaks but Remains Substantially Elevated
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

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