Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for MARCH 2026
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for March, 2026 was released today:
Predicted: 54.0
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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.
The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.
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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
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Predicted: 54.0
- Actual: 53.3
- Change from Previous Month: -5.83% (-3.3 points)
- Change from 12-Months Previous: -6.49% (-3.7 points)
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- Final ICS Reading for February 2026: 56.6
- Final ICS Reading for March 2025: 57.0
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From Today's Report:
"...Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran invasion, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment.
Overall, the short-run economic outlook plunged 14%, and year-ahead expected personal finances sank 10%, while declines in long-run expectations were more subdued.
These patterns suggest that, at this time, consumers may not expect recent negative developments to persist far into the future. These views are subject to change, however, if the Iran conflict becomes protracted or if higher energy prices pass through to overall inflation.
Interviews for this release were collected between February 17 and March 23, with about two-thirds completed after the start of the US military invasion of Iran.
Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from 3.4% in February to 3.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025. The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.
Long-run inflation expectations inched down to 3.2%. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%. Note that for both time horizons, interviews completed after February 28th exhibited higher inflation expectations than those completed before that date..."
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CHART: Expectations Worsen After Start of
Invasion of Iran, Particularly Over Short Run
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Invasion of Iran, Particularly Over Short Run
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:
- "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these
days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are
better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
- "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your
family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or
just about the same as now?"
- "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do
you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
- "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the
country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five
years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
- "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture,
a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally
speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major
household items?"
- Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.
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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.
The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.
=========
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
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posted by Steve Brown | 3/30/2026 07:50:00 PM
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