Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for August 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for August 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 58.5

• Actual: 58.2

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• Change from Previous Month: -5.67% (-3.5 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -14.29% (-9.7 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for July 2025: 61.7
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for August 2024: 67.9

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading, moving down about 6% from July. Sentiment now stands about 11% above readings from April and May but remains at least 10% below 6 and 12 months ago. This month’s decrease was visible across groups by age, income, and stock wealth. Moreover, perceptions of many aspects of the economy slipped. Buying conditions for durable goods subsided to their lowest reading in a year, and current personal finances declined 7%, both due to heightened concerns about high prices.

Expectations for business conditions and labor markets contracted in August as well. That said, expectations for personal finances held steady this month, albeit at relatively subdued levels relative to a year ago. This month, few consumers spontaneously mentioned the recent events at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve (interviews closed on Monday, August 25, the day Trump announced he was firing Governor Cook).

Year-ahead inflation expectations moved up from 4.5% last month to 4.8% this month. This rise was seen across multiple demographic groups. Independents and Republicans both exhibited month-over-month increases; expectations for Democrats were unchanged from July. Long-run inflation expectations edged up from 3.4% in July to 3.5% in August. This month ended two consecutive months of receding inflation for short-run expectations and three straight months for long-run expectations. Still, both readings remain well below the highs seen briefly in April and May 2025..."

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CHART: Despite Large Partisan Gaps in Recent Years,
Growing Shares of Consumers Across the
Political Spectrum Expect Lower Interest Rates
AUGUST 2025 UPDATE
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for AUGUST 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (August, 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 97.4

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Previous Month (revised): 98.7

• Change from Previous Month: -1.32% (-1.3 points)
  

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The present situation and the expectation components both weakened. Notably, consumers’ appraisal of current job availability declined for the eighth consecutive month, but stronger views of current business conditions mitigated the retreat in the Present Situation Index.

Meanwhile, pessimism about future job availability inched up and optimism about future income faded slightly. However, these were partly offset by stronger expectations for future business conditions.'..."

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Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
AUGUST 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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New Home Sales During JULY 2025

The July, 2025 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Previous Month (revised): 656,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 652,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: -4,000 units (-0.61%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: -58,000 units (-8.17%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During July, 2025: $403,800

• Change from 1 Year Previous: -$25,200 (-5.87%)

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Average Price for a New Home
During July, 2025: $487,300

• Change from 1 Year Previous: -$25,900 (-5.05%)

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Inventory: 499,000 (+34,000 units / +7.31% Year-on-Year)

• 9.2 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
JULY 2025 Update

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• CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for The Monthly Existing Home Sales Report.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Existing Home Sales During JULY 2025

Existing Home Sales report for July 2025 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

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Previous Month: 3,930,000

• Actual: 4,010,000

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•  Change from Previous Month: +2.04% (+80,000 homes)
  
  
•  Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): +0.75% (+30,000 homes)

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• Inventory: 1,550,000 homes.

(4.6 months supply | +210,000 [+15.67%] homes Y-o-Y.)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Median Price: $422,400
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +0.24% (+$1,000)

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• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for New Home Sales Data.
  
  
• Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

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From Today's Report:

"...'The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices. Condominium sales increased in the South region, where prices had been falling for the past year.'

'Near-zero growth in home prices suggests that roughly half the country is experiencing price reductions. Overall, homeowners are doing well financially. Only 2% of sales were foreclosures or short sales -- essentially a historic low. The market's health is supported by a cumulative 49% home price appreciation for a typical American homeowner from pre-COVID July 2019 to July this year,' Dr. Yun continued.

'Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.'..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
JULY 2025 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2025 REALTORS®)

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• Click here to view the NAR® data.

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for August 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for August 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 60.0

• Actual: 58.6

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -5.02% (-3.1 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -13.7% (-9.3 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for July 2025: 61.7
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for August 2024: 67.9

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell back about 5% in August, declining for the first time in four months. This deterioration largely stems from rising worries about inflation. Buying conditions for durables plunged 14%, its lowest reading in a year, on the basis of high prices. Current personal finances declined modestly amid growing concerns about purchasing power.

In contrast, expected personal finances inched up a touch along with a slight firming in income expectations, which remain subdued. Overall, consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April when reciprocal tariffs were announced and then paused.

However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future.

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.5% last month to 4.9% this month. This increase was seen across multiple demographic groups and all three political affiliations. Long-run  inflation expectations also lifted from 3.4% in July to 3.9% in August.

This month ended two consecutive months of receding inflation for short-run expectations and three straight months for long-run expectations. Still, both readings remain well below the highs seen briefly in April and May 2025..."

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CHART: Unemployment and Inflation Expectations Worsen
in August, Partially Offsetting Recent Improvements
AUGUST 2025 Preliminary UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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