Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for JUNE 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June, 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 93.0

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Previous Month (revised): 98.4

• Change from Previous Month: -5.49% (-5.4 points)
  

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. 

Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market. The three components of the Expectations Index -- business conditions, employment prospects, and future income -- all weakened. Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.'..."

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Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
JUNE 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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Existing Home Sales During MAY 2025

Existing Home Sales report for May 2025 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

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Previous Month: 4,000,000

• Actual: 4,030,000

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•  Change from Previous Month: +0.75% (+30,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago: -0.74% (-30,000 homes)

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• Inventory: 1,540,000 homes.

(4.6 months supply | +260,000 [+20.31%] homes year-on-year.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Median Price: $422,800
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +1.34% (+$5,600)

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==========

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for New Home Sales Data.
  
  
• Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'The relatively subdued sales are largely due to persistently high mortgage rates. Lower interest rates will attract more buyers and sellers to the housing market,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'Increasing participation in the housing market will increase the mobility of the workforce and drive economic growth. If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, expect home sales across the country to increase due to strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs.'

Mortgage Rates: 6.81%: Average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as of June 18 according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.84% one week before and 6.87% one year ago..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
MAY 2025 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2025 REALTORS®)

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• Click here to view the NAR data.

==================

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for June 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for June 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 60.5

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• Change from Previous Month: +15.90% (+8.3 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -11.29% (-7.7 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for May 2025: 52.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for June 2024: 68.2

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in six months, climbing 16% from last month but remaining about 20% below December 2024, when sentiment had exhibited a post-election bump. These trends were unanimous across the distributions of age, income, wealth, political party, and geographic region.

Moreover, all five index components rose, with a particularly steep increase for short and long-run expected business conditions, consistent with a perceived easing of pressures from tariffs.

Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed.

However, consumers still perceive wide-ranging downside risks to the economy. Their views of business conditions, personal finances, buying conditions for big ticket items, labor markets, and stock markets all remain well below six months ago in December 2024. Despite this month’s notable improvement, consumers remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations plunged from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month. Long-run inflation expectations fell for the second straight month, stepping down from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June. Both readings are the lowest in three months.

Consumers’ fears about the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation  have softened somewhat in June. Still, inflation expectations remain above readings seen throughout the second half of 2024, reflecting widespread beliefs that trade policy may still contribute to an increase in inflation in the year ahead..."

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CHART: Sentiment Lifts for the First Time Since December 2024 
Amid Softening Tariff Worries; Consumers Remain Guarded.
JUNE 2025 UPDATE
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May, 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 88.0

• Actual: 98.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 85.7

• Change from Previous Month: 14.35% (+12.3 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards. The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index -- business conditions, employment prospects, and future income -- rose from their April lows. Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months and regained optimism about future income prospects. Consumers’ assessments of the present situation also improved. However, while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month.'

Guichard added: 'With the stock market continuing to recover in May, consumers’ outlook on stock prices improved, with 44% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months (up from 37.6% in April) and 37.7% expecting stock prices to decline (down from 47.2% in April). This was one of the survey questions with the strongest improvement after the May 12 trade deal.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
MAY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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A "For Food" Payment Request Scam Attempt on Cash.APP®

www.FedPrimeRate.com: "For Food"
Payment Request Scam
Attempt on Cash.APP®

Here's a first: Someone trying to scam me via Cash APP®.

$25.00 for food, for someone with the name Chivo Valluco. Fake name?  Sounds pretty darn fake to me! 😏

It was just a matter of time, since my business Cash App ID ($cashtag) is visible on the Internet, for all to see.

Blocking the scammer was a quick and easy.

Some of these Cash.APP scams are very crafty and sophisticated.  Here's a clip from a Forbes® article:

"...Sometimes, they even send money to the Cash App user and then say it was an accident. Then they ask for a refund, but the money was initially sent from a hacked or stolen account. The user sends back the money, but now they're left with the headache of dealing with the original fraud...."

Yikes! #Beware! 😓

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New Home Sales During April 2025

The April, 2025 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Previous Month (revised): 670,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 743,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: +73,000 units (+10.9%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: +24,000 units (+3.34%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During April, 2025: $407,200

• Change from 1 Year Previous: -$8,100 (-1.95%)

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Average Price for a New Home
During April, 2025: $518,400

• Change from 1 Year Previous: +$17,800 (+3.56%)

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Inventory: 504,000 (+40,000 units / +8.62% Year-on-Year)

• 8.1 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

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CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
APRIL 2025 Update

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• CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for The Monthly Existing Home Sales Report.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Existing Home Sales During April 2025

Existing Home Sales report for April 2025 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,020,000

• Actual: 4,000,000

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•  Change from Previous Month: -0.5% (-2,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago: -1.96% (-8,000 homes)

======================

• Inventory: 1,450,000 homes.

(4.4 months supply | +250,000 [+20.83%] homes year-on-year.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

• Median Price: $414,000
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +1.82% (+$7,400)

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for New Home Sales Data.
  
  
• Click Here for the monthly New Home Sales report.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'Home sales have been at 75% of normal or pre-pandemic activity for the past three years, even with seven million jobs added to the economy,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'Pent-up housing demand continues to grow, though not realized. Any meaningful decline in mortgage rates will help release this demand.'

'At the macro level, we are still in a mild seller's market,' Yun said. 'But with the highest inventory levels in nearly five years, consumers are in a better situation to negotiate for better deals.'..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2025 REALTORS®)

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==================

• Click here to view the NAR data.

==================

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