.comment-link {margin-left:.6em;}

Money

The www.FedPrimeRate.com Personal Finance Blog and Magazine

Monday, December 08, 2025

A Sophisticated Money Transfer Scam by Scammers Using Zelle®

This New York Times article was written by Michael Wilson:

CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - SEPTEMBER 2024 Update
 

A Sophisticated Money Transfer Scam by Scammers Using Zelle®
A Sophisticated Money Transfer
 Scam by Scammers Using Zelle®
I’ve Written About Loads of Scams. This One Almost Got Me.
“Please hold,” the caller said, “while I transfer you to my supervisor.”

It was a Wednesday in August, a little before lunch. The call came from a 212 number, which for a New Yorker could be almost anything -- the school, the pharmacy, the roof guy -- so I answered.

The caller asked for me by name and stated in measured tones that he was from Chase® Bank and he wanted to verify transfers being made from my account to someone in Texas.

Wrong number, I said. I don’t have a Chase account.

But one was recently opened in your name, he replied, with two Zelle transfers. And minutes ago, someone tried to transfer those funds, $2,100, to San Antonio.

Now, this carried the whiff of plausibility. I’m one of some 150 million people who have access to
Zelle®, the payments platform that lets you send and receive money from your phone. But my scam radar was also fully operational and pinging.

“How do I know this isn’t a scam?” I asked, sounding like that guy in every movie who asks an undercover cop if he’s a cop.

He had a quick answer. Look at the number showing on your phone and Google it, he replied. “Now look up the Chase branch at 3 Times Square,” he instructed. “See the office phone number?” I did, and it matched the one on my phone’s screen.

Then he added, “Here at Chase, we’ll never ask for your personal information or passwords.” On the contrary, he gave me more information -- two “cancellation codes” and a long case number with four letters and 10 digits.

That’s when he offered to transfer me to his supervisor. That simple phrase, familiar from countless customer-service calls, draped a cloak of corporate competence over this unfolding drama. His supervisor. I mean, would a scammer have a supervisor?

The line went mute for a few seconds, and a second man greeted me with a voice of authority. “My name is Mike Wallace,” he said, and asked for my case number from the first guy. I dutifully read it back to him.

“Yes, yes, I see,” the man said, as if looking at a screen. He explained the situation -- new account, Zelle® transfers, Texas -- and suggested we reverse the attempted withdrawal.

I’m not proud to report that by now, he had my full attention, and I was ready to proceed with whatever plan he had in mind. 

Internet fraud has grown steadily, with 2024 setting new record-high losses -- “a staggering $16.6 billion,” the F.B.I.’s annual Internet Crime Complaint Center wrote in a recent report. These crimes include elaborate cryptocurrency schemes and ransomware attacks on entire cities, but phishing and spoofing -- the cloning of an actual phone number -- still lead the list of some 860,000 complaints last year.

Are these scams entering some sort of improved, 2.0 version of the old-school Nigerian-prince-type setup?

“I wouldn’t call it an improvement,” said Paul Roberts, an assistant special agent in charge of the New York offices of the F.B.I. “It’s an adaptation. As the public becomes more aware of schemes, they need to adjust.”

The man claiming to be a Chase supervisor asked me to open Zelle. Where it says, “Enter an amount,” he instructed me to type $2,100, the amount of the withdrawals he was going to help me reverse.

Then, in the “Enter phone number or email” window -- where the other party in a Zelle transaction goes -- he instructed me to type the case number the first caller had given me, but to leave out the four letters. Numbers only. I dutifully entered the 10 digits, but my skepticism was finally showing up.


“Mr. Wallace,” I said, somewhat apologetically. “This case number sure looks like a phone number, and I’m about to send that number $2,100.”

No, he replied, because of this important next step. In the window that says “What’s this for? ” where you might add “babysitter” or “block party donation,” he told me to enter a unique code that would alert his team that this transaction should be reversed.

It was incredibly long, and he read it out slowly -- “S, T, P, P, six, seven, one, two …” -- and I typed along. Now and then he even threw in some military-style lingo: “… zero, zero, Charlie, X-ray, nine, eight …”

Once we were done, he had me read the whole 19-character code back to him.

Now, he said, press “Send.”

But one word above the “What’s this for?” box containing our special code with the X-ray and the Charlie kept bothering me: “Optional.”

Then I had an idea, and asked the supervisor if he was calling from 3 Times Square. Yes, he said.

I’ll come to you, I said, and we’ll fix this together.

By then it will probably be too late, he said.

“I’ll call you back,” I said, and he said that would be fine, and I hung up.

I called my bank and confirmed what I’d come to suspect. There had been no recent Zelle activity.

My jaw dropped when I went back and looked at my call history. Sixteen minutes — that’s how long they had me on the line.

In decades as a crime reporter, I’ve covered many, many scams -- psychic scams, sweetheart swindles, real-estate scams, even the obscure “nanny scam,” where a fake mother reaches out to a young caregiver to try to rip her off.

I should be able to spot a scam in under 16 seconds, I thought -- but 16 minutes?

I wanted to know why this scam seemed to work so much better than others...

CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - SEPTEMBER 2024 Update 
The full article continues here 
(New York Times subscription required)

 CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - SEPTEMBER 2024 Update 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE

--> SITEMAP <--

Friday, December 05, 2025

Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for DECEMBER 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for December, 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 52.0
  • Actual: 53.3
=========

  • Change from Previous Month: +4.51% (+2.3 point)

  • Change from 12 Months Previous: -27.97% (-20.7 points)

=========

  • Final ICS Reading for November 2025: 51.0

  • Final ICS Reading for December 2024: 74.0

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment lifted 2.3 index points in early December, within the margin of error. This month’s increase was concentrated primarily among younger consumers. Overall, while views of current conditions were little changed, expectations improved, led by a 13% rise in expected personal finances, with improvements visible across age, income, education, and political affiliation. Still, December’s reading on expected personal finances is nearly 12% below the beginning of the year. Similarly, labor market expectations improved a touch but remained relatively dismal. Consumers see modest improvements from November on a few dimensions, but the overall tenor of views is broadly somber, as consumers continue to cite the burden of high prices.

Looking to the future, year-ahead inflation expectations decreased from 4.5% last month to 4.1% this month, the lowest reading since January 2025. This marks four consecutive months of declines, but short-run inflation expectations are still above the 3.3% seen in January. Long-run inflation expectations softened from 3.4% last month to 3.2% in December, matching the January 2025 reading. In comparison, 2024 readings ranged between 2.8 and 3.2%, while the readings in 2019 and 2020 were below 2.8%. 
Inflation uncertainty over both time horizons -- as measured by the interquartile range of responses -- remains higher than January of this year..."
=========
CHART: Consumer Sentiment Current Conditions Index December 2025 UPDATE
CHART: Consumer Sentiment
Current Conditions Index
December 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

  1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"

  2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"

  3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"

  4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"

  5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
=========


=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

========= 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE

--> SITEMAP <--

Thursday, November 27, 2025

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for NOVEMBER 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (November, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 92.0
  • Actual: 88.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 95.5

  • Change from Previous Month-7.12% (-6.8 point)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. 'All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions.

The labor market differential -- the share of 
consumers who say jobs are 'plentiful' minus the share saying 'hard to get' -- dipped again in November after a brief respite in October from its year-to-date decline.

All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November. Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now.

Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.'..."
================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - NOVEMBER 2025 Update
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
NOVEMBER 2025 Update

========================================


=========================================
 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE

--> SITEMAP <--

Friday, November 21, 2025

Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for NOVEMBER 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for November 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 51.0
  • Actual: 51.0
=========

  • Change from Previous Month: -4.85% (-2.6 points)

  • Change from 12-Months Previous: -28.97% (-20.8 points)

=========

  • Final ICS Reading for October 2025: 53.6

  • Final ICS Reading for November 2024: 71.8

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was little changed this month with a 2.6 index point decrease from October that is within the margin of error. After the federal shutdown ended, sentiment lifted slightly from its mid-month reading. However, consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes.

This month, current personal finances and buying conditions for durables both plunged more than 10%, whereas expectations for the future improved modestly. By the end of the month, sentiment for consumers with the largest stock holdings lost the gains seen at the preliminary reading. This group’s sentiment dropped about 2 index points from October, likely a consequence of the stock market declines seen over the past two weeks.

Year-ahead inflation expectations inched down from 4.6% last month to 4.5% this month. This marks three consecutive months of declines, but short-run inflation expectations still remain above the 3.3% seen in January. Long-run inflation expectations softened from 3.9% last month to 3.4% in November.

These expectations are now modestly above the 3.2% January 2025 reading. Despite these improvements in the future trajectory of inflation, consumers continue to report that their personal finances now are weighed down by the present state of high prices..."
=========
CHART: Consumers, Especially Younger Ones, Perceive Rising Risks of Job Loss
CHART: Consumers, Especially Younger Ones,
Perceive Rising Risks of Job Loss
 
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

  1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"

  2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"

  3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"

  4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"

  5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
=========


=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

========= 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE

--> SITEMAP <--

Existing Home Sales During OCTOBER 2025

Existing Home Sales report for October 2025 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,050,000

  • Actual: 4,100,000
======================

  •  Change from Previous Month: +1.23% (+50,000 homes)

  •  Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y)+1.74% (+70,000 homes)
======================

  • Inventory: 1,520,000 homes.
(4.4 months supply | +150,000 [+10.95%] homes Y-o-Y.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

  • Median Price: $415,200

  • Price Change from A Year Ago: +2.06% (+$8,400)

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'Home sales increased in October even with the government shutdown due to homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates,' said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. 'First-time homebuyers are facing headwinds in the Northeast due to a lack of supply and in the West because of high home prices. First-time buyers fared better in the Midwest because of the plentiful supply of affordable houses and in the South because there is sufficient inventory.'

'Rents are decelerating which will reduce inflation and encourage the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates and pulling back their quantitative tightening,' Yun added. 'This will help bring more homebuyers into the market since the Fed rate has an indirect impact on 
mortgage rates.'..."

==================

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales OCTOBER 2025 UPDATE (Copyright © 2025 REALTORS®)
INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
OCTOBER 2025 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2025 REALTORS®)
==================

==================

==================

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE

--> SITEMAP <--

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for OCTOBER 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (October, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 95.0
  • Actual: 94.6

================

Previous Month (revised): 95.6

  • Change from Previous Month-1.05% (-1.0 point)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'Changes to the individual subcomponents were also limited and largely cancelled each other out.
The Present Situation Index regained some strength after September’s drop. Consumers’ view of current business conditions inched upward, while their appraisal of current job availability improved for the first time since December 2024.
On the other hand, all three components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future future job availability and future business conditions while optimism about future income retreated slightly.'
Guichard added: 'Consumers’ write-in responses were led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy.
References to tariffs declined further this month but remained elevated. Mentions of jobs and employment eased somewhat after picking up in September.
The write-in comments remained mostly negative overall, but less so than in previous months. References to US politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.'..."
================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) OCTOBER 2025 Update
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
OCTOBER 2025 Update

========================================


=========================================
 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE

--> SITEMAP <--

Friday, October 24, 2025

Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for OCTOBER 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for October 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 55.0
  • Actual: 53.6
=========

  • Change from Previous Month: -2.72% (-1.5 points)

  • Change from 12-Months Previous: -23.97% (-16.9 points)

=========

  • Final ICS Reading for September 2025: 55.1

  • Final ICS Reading for October 2024: 70.5

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was little changed this month, slipping a scant 1.5 index points from September. A modest increase in sentiment among younger consumers was offset by decreases among middle-age and older consumers. Current personal finances inched up, while expected personal finances receded. Overall, consumers perceive few material changes in economic circumstances from last month; inflation and high prices remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds.

There was little evidence this month that consumers connect the federal government shutdown to the economy. Only about 2% spontaneously referenced the shutdown during this month’s interviews, compared with the 10% of consumers who did so in January 2019 during that 35-day shutdown.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ebbed from 4.7% last month to 4.6% this month. These expectations are currently midway between the readings seen a year ago and the highs seen this year in May in the wake of the initial announcements of major tariff changes. Long-run inflation expectations increased from 3.7% last month to 3.9% this month but remains below this year’s high point seen in April.

This month’s increase in long-run inflation expectations was driven primarily by independents and Republicans. Inflation uncertainty -- as measured by the interquartile range of expectations -- ticked up for both time horizons this month..."
=========

CHART: Concerns Over High Interest Rates  for Poor Buying Conditions for Major  Purchases Fell During October 2025
CHART: Concerns Over High Interest Rates
 for Poor Buying Conditions for Major
 Purchases Fell During October 2025

 
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

  1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"

  2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"

  3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"

  4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"

  5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
=========


=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

========= 


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE

--> SITEMAP <--

Existing Home Sales During SEPTEMBER 2025

Existing Home Sales report for September 2025 was released by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,000,000

  • Actual: 4,060,000
======================

  •  Change from Previous Month: +1.5% (+60,000 homes)

  •  Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y)+4.1% (+160,000 homes)
======================

  • Inventory: 1,550,000 homes.
(4.6 months supply | +190,000 [+13.97%] homes Y-o-Y.)

======================

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

  • Median Price: $415,200

  • Price Change from A Year Ago: +2.09% (+$8,500)

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========

==========

From Today's Report:

"...'As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,' said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. 'Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.'

'Inventory is matching a five-year high, though it remains below pre-COVID levels,' Yun added. 'Many homeowners are financially comfortable, resulting in very few distressed properties and forced sales. Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth.'.
.."

==================

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE (Copyright © 2025 REALTORS®)
INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE
(Copyright © 2025 REALTORS®)
==================

==================

==================

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE

--> SITEMAP <--

Friday, October 10, 2025

Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for October 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for October, 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 55.0
  • Actual: 55.0
=========

  • Change from Previous Month: -0.18% (-0.1 point)

  • Change from 12 Months Previous: -21.99% (-15.5 points)

=========

  • Final ICS Reading for September 2025: 55.1

  • Final ICS Reading for October 2024: 70.5

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment moved sideways this month. At 55 index points, sentiment is virtually unchanged from September. Improvements this month in current personal finances and year-ahead business conditions were offset by declines in expectations for future personal finances as well as current buying conditions for durables.

Overall, consumers perceive very few changes in the outlook for the economy from last month. Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds.

At this time, consumers do not expect meaningful improvement in these factors. Meanwhile, interviews reveal little evidence that the ongoing federal government shutdown has moved consumers’ views of the economy thus far.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ebbed from 4.7% last month to a still-high 4.6% this month. Long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.7%. Inflation expectations for both time horizons are about midway between the readings seen a year ago and the highs seen this year in April and May in the wake of the initial announcements of major tariff changes.
.."
=========

CHART: Since Converging in May 2025, Sentiment Lifted for Consumers with Large Stock Holdings and Fell for Non-Stockholders
CHART: Since Converging in May 2025,
 Sentiment Lifted for Consumers with Large Stock
Holdings and Fell for Non-Stockholders
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

  1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"

  2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"

  3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"

  4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"

  5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
=========


=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

========= 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE

--> SITEMAP <--

Wednesday, October 01, 2025

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for SEPTEMBER 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (September, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 95.0
  • Actual: 94.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 97.8

  • Change from Previous Month-3.68% (-3.6 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The present situation component registered its largest drop in a year. Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings. Expectations also weakened in September, but to a lesser extent. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions but optimism about future  income increased, mitigating the overall decline in the Expectations Index.'

Among demographic groups, confidence rose for consumers under 35 years old but declined for consumers over 35. The evolution of confidence by income group was mixed, with no clear pattern emerging. By income, confidence remained above its April low for all consumer cohorts besides households making between $25K and $35K and those making above $200K. By partisan affiliation, confidence improved slightly among both Republicans and Democrats but dropped substantially among Independents.  

Guichard added: 'Consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to prices and 
inflation rose in September, regaining its top position as the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy. References to tariffs declined this month, but remained elevated and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices. Nonetheless, consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations inched down, to 5.8% in September from 6.1% in August. This is still notably above 5.0%, the level at the end of 2024.'..."
================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - SEPTEMBER 2025 Update
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
SEPTEMBER 2025 Update


========================================


=========================================
 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE

--> SITEMAP <--

Friday, September 26, 2025

Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for September 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for September 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 55.5
  • Actual: 55.1
=========

  • Change from Previous Month: -5.33% (-3.1 points)

  • Change from 12-Months Previous: -21.4% (-15.0 points)

=========

  • Final ICS Reading for August 2025: 58.2

  • Final ICS Reading for September 2024: 70.1

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading and eased about 5% from last month but remains above the low readings seen in April and May of this year. Although September’s decline was relatively modest, it was still seen across a broad swath of the population, across groups by age, income, and education, and all five index components.

A key exception: sentiment for consumers with larger stock holdings held steady in September, while for those with smaller or no holdings, sentiment decreased.

This month, sentiment moved down about 9% for independents and 4% for Republicans, whereas it lifted this month for Democrats. Nationally, not only did macroeconomic expectations fall, particularly for labor markets and business conditions, but personal expectations did as well, with a softening outlook for their own incomes and personal finances.

Consumers continue to express frustration over the persistence of high prices, with 44% spontaneously mentioning that high prices are eroding their personal finances, the highest reading in a year.

Interviews this month highlight the fact that consumers feel pressure both from the prospect of higher inflation as well as the risk of weaker labor markets.

Year-ahead inflation expectations receded slightly to 4.7% from 4.8% last month. Long-run inflation expectations moved up for the second straight month to 3.7% in September, but stand much lower than the 4.4% spike seen in April.
.."
=========
CHART: Uncertainty Over Path of Inflation Plunges  Since May 2025, but Remains Historically High  - SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE
CHART: Uncertainty Over Path of Inflation Plunges 
Since May 2025, but Remains Historically High 
SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE

 
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

  1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"

  2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"

  3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"

  4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"

  5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
=========


=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

========= 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE

--> SITEMAP <--


bing

bing


SCAMS!

FedPrimeRate.com
Entire Website © 1999 - 2026 FedPrimeRate.comSM


This website is neither affiliated nor associated with The United States Federal Reserve
in any way. Information in this website is provided for educational purposes only. The owners
of this website make no warranties with respect to any and all content contained within this
website. Consult a financial professional before making important decisions related to any
investment or loan product, including, but not limited to, business loans, personal loans,
education loans, first or second mortgages, credit cards, car loans or any type of insurance.