Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for JANUARY 2026

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (January, 2026) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 89.0

• Actual: 84.5

================

Previous Month (revised): 94.2

• Change from Previous Month: -10.3% (-9.7 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. 'All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2) -- surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.'

Peterson added: “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. References to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices remained elevated. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January, and references to health/insurance and war edged higher.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

JANUARY 2026 Update

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for DECEMBER 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (December, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 92.0

• Actual: 89.1

================

Previous Month (revised): 92.9

• Change from Previous Month: -4.09% (-3.8 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Despite an upward revision in November related to the end of the shutdown, consumer confidence fell again in December and remained well below this year’s January peak. Four of five components of the overall index fell, while one was at a level signaling notable weakness,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

The Present Situation Index declined as net views on current business conditions were negative for the first time since September 2024, a month that included a labor market scare and deadly hurricanes. Perceptions of employment conditions edged lower as the labor market differential -- the share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ minus the share saying jobs are ‘hard to get’ -- continued to flag. Two of the three Expectations Index components dipped in December. November’s nosedive in expectations for business conditions six months from now mostly reversed in December but remained negative. Expectations for labor market conditions were gloomier, and the outlook for household incomes was less positive.

Among demographic groups, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence dipped among all age groups in December, although consumers under 35 continued to be more confident than consumers age 35 and older. There were few generational differences, as confidence among all generations trended downward in the month, with only the Silent Generation becoming more hopeful. Millennials and Gen Z remained the most optimistic of all generations surveyed. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis fell for nearly all brackets, except for those earning less than $15K and more than $125K. Still, consumers earning less than $15K remained the least optimistic among all income groups. Confidence continued to fall in December among all political affiliations (Democrats, Republicans, and Independents).

Peterson added: 'Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and income, tariffs and trade, and politics. However, December saw increases in mentions of immigration, war, and topics related to personal finances -- including interest rates, taxes and income, banks, and insurance. The responses continued to skew pessimistic but less so than November, potentially due to fewer negative comments about prices and inflation, politics, as well as a rebound in positive responses about interest rates. Notably, the Federal Reserve Board cut monetary policy rates on December 10 for a third time in 2025, which landed in the second half of the survey sample interval.'

Nonetheless, the share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise were on net higher, with a drop in the proportion expecting lower rates. Consumers’ median and average 12-month inflation expectations both retreated in December after an uptick in November. The balance of consumers’ expectations for stock prices twelve months from now -- higher minus lower -- was the most positive since January 2025..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

DECEMBER 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for NOVEMBER 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (November, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 92.0

• Actual: 88.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 95.5

• Change from Previous Month: -7.12% (-6.8 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,' said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. 'All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions.

The labor market differential -- the share of consumers who say jobs are 'plentiful' minus the share saying 'hard to get' -- dipped again in November after a brief respite in October from its year-to-date decline.

All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November. Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now.

Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

NOVEMBER 2025 Update

========================================

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========================================= 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for OCTOBER 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (October, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 94.6

================

Previous Month (revised): 95.6

• Change from Previous Month: -1.05% (-1.0 point)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'Changes to the individual subcomponents were also limited and largely cancelled each other out.

The Present Situation Index regained some strength after September’s drop. Consumers’ view of current business conditions inched upward, while their appraisal of current job availability improved for the first time since December 2024.

On the other hand, all three components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future future job availability and future business conditions while optimism about future income retreated slightly.'

Guichard added: 'Consumers’ write-in responses were led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy.

References to tariffs declined further this month but remained elevated. Mentions of jobs and employment eased somewhat after picking up in September.

The write-in comments remained mostly negative overall, but less so than in previous months. References to US politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

OCTOBER 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for SEPTEMBER 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (September, 2025) was released by The Conference Board®:

================

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 94.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 97.8

• Change from Previous Month: -3.68% (-3.6 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The present situation component registered its largest drop in a year. Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings. Expectations also weakened in September, but to a lesser extent. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions but optimism about future  income increased, mitigating the overall decline in the Expectations Index.'

Among demographic groups, confidence rose for consumers under 35 years old but declined for consumers over 35. The evolution of confidence by income group was mixed, with no clear pattern emerging. By income, confidence remained above its April low for all consumer cohorts besides households making between $25K and $35K and those making above $200K. By partisan affiliation, confidence improved slightly among both Republicans and Democrats but dropped substantially among Independents.  

Guichard added: 'Consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to prices and inflation rose in September, regaining its top position as the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy. References to tariffs declined this month, but remained elevated and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices. Nonetheless, consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations inched down, to 5.8% in September from 6.1% in August. This is still notably above 5.0%, the level at the end of 2024.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
SEPTEMBER 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for AUGUST 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (August, 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 97.4

================

Previous Month (revised): 98.7

• Change from Previous Month: -1.32% (-1.3 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The present situation and the expectation components both weakened. Notably, consumers’ appraisal of current job availability declined for the eighth consecutive month, but stronger views of current business conditions mitigated the retreat in the Present Situation Index.

Meanwhile, pessimism about future job availability inched up and optimism about future income faded slightly. However, these were partly offset by stronger expectations for future business conditions.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
AUGUST 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

========================================= 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for JULY 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (July, 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 97.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 95.2

• Change from Previous Month: -2.10% (-2.0 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'In July, pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence.

All three components of the Expectation Index improved, with consumers feeling less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, and more optimistic about future income.

Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of the present situation was little changed. They were a tad more positive about current business conditions in July than in June. However, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since March 2021. Notably, 18.9% of consumers indicated that jobs were hard to get in July, up from 14.5% in January.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
JULY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for JUNE 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June, 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 93.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 98.4

• Change from Previous Month: -5.49% (-5.4 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. 

Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market. The three components of the Expectations Index -- business conditions, employment prospects, and future income -- all weakened. Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
JUNE 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May, 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 88.0

• Actual: 98.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 85.7

• Change from Previous Month: 14.35% (+12.3 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards. The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index -- business conditions, employment prospects, and future income -- rose from their April lows. Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months and regained optimism about future income prospects. Consumers’ assessments of the present situation also improved. However, while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month.'

Guichard added: 'With the stock market continuing to recover in May, consumers’ outlook on stock prices improved, with 44% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months (up from 37.6% in April) and 37.7% expecting stock prices to decline (down from 47.2% in April). This was one of the survey questions with the strongest improvement after the May 12 trade deal.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
MAY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (April, 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 88.0

• Actual: 86.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 93.9

• Change from Previous Month: 8.41% (-7.9 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,' said
Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations.

The three expectation components -- business conditions, employment prospects, and future income -- all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession.

In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board® is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
APRIL 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (December, 2024) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 112.0

• Actual: 104.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 112.8

• Change from Previous Month: -7.18% (-8.1 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'The recent rebound in consumer confidence was not sustained in December as the Index dropped back to the middle of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'While weaker consumer assessments of the present situation and expectations contributed to the decline, the expectations component saw the sharpest drop.

Consumer views of current labor market conditions continued to improve, consistent with recent jobs and unemployment data, but their assessment of business conditions weakened. Compared to last month, consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes. Moreover, pessimism about future employment prospects returned after cautious optimism prevailed in October and November.'

Peterson added: 'Consumers became a bit less bullish about the stock market in December: 52.9% expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead, down from a record high of 57.2% in November. Also, 25% of consumers expected stock prices to decline, up from 21.7%. The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months ticked up to 48.5% but remained near recent lows. The share expecting lower rates eased to 29.3% -- down from recent months but still quite high.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
DECEMBER 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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Money In Motion

The other night, I was both bored and restless, and feeling a bit burned out. So I decided to take a long walk with my camera and see if I could find interesting things and/or people to photograph.

I was one block away from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia when I came across a group of homeless folks sitting on the sidewalk. One guy was very busy, working very hard scraping dirt from coins and other metallic objects. I stopped and asked him what he was doing. He introduced himself as Danny (pic to the left), and told me that he was recently homeless. He said that he made an arrangements with a friend of his who owns a local laundromat. Danny explained that his friend lets him stop by the laundromat every once in a while and collect whatever he can from the numerous washing machine drains, and Danny can keep whatever he finds. Danny told me that he finds tons of coins, from pennies to quarters, and often finds jewelry and other valuable items. He showed me a clutch of gold necklaces. He let me keep a very worn out penny.

At this point, a small crowd formed around Danny, attracted by the bright flashes from my camera. One passerby asked Danny why he didn't simply wash all the items at once with water. Danny explained that he liked scrapping the coins on the ground. Kept him busy.

After chatting with Danny for a few minutes, I thanked him for his time and for letting me take a few pictures. I then walked over to the Philly Federal Reserve Bank. The bank was advertising a "Money in Motion" exhibit from a large banner at the corner of Arch and 7^TH streets. Admission was free.

I was embarrassed for the Bank.

Here we have the most powerful central bank in the world, a bank that has been printing money out of thin air in an effort to "save the American economy," a bank that wants the world to believe that giving money away to people who have amassed much of their obscene wealth by figuring out ways to get very rich without providing useful goods or services, is the best way to extricate America from the Great Recession. I see "Money in Motion" and I think, "Hmmm, our central bank actually wants to show off how it helps the masters of greed who caused the financial crisis get even richer by sucking untold billions from taxpayers pockets. Hmmm...."

Many Americans know that the federal government spent hundreds of billions of dollars to bailout the insurance giant AIG. What many don't know -- because most mainstream media outlets don't want to go there -- is that the investment bank Goldman Sachs got about $12.9 billion from AIG's bailout bundle. Don't believe me? Read about it here. Just as sickening: foreign banks got billions of that bailout cash as well, including Barclays PLC, Societe Generale, and Deutsche Bank. Money in Motion, baby.

The AIG bailout was a crony capitalism, plain and simple. Goldman has never been a vital part of the American financial landscape. Without AIG's bailout money, Goldman would have taken a huge loss, but would have survived. Meanwhile, countless commercial banks, the ones that lend money to businesses and consumers and help keep Americans employed, are still failing at an alarming rate.

A laundromat owner -- someone who makes money by providing a useful service to her community -- lets a homeless guy clean out washing machine drains and keep whatever he finds: that's my idea of money in motion. It's honorable, civilized and far more American than any multi-billion dollar crony bailout.

Here's an idea: why doesn't the Philly Fed Bank open a small office that's open to the street where people like Danny can connect with business owners who are looking for simple services like cleaning laundromat drains or sweeping floors. They could call it the Informal Services Marketplace. Could help a lot of people who can't find work in the formal economy, or people with mental issues who aren't mentally fit enough to hold down a solid job. Criminal background checks would be mandatory, of course.


I'm glad I bumped into Danny that night. It's so easy to feel overwhelmed by an anemic and dwindling income, healthcare inflation and child support payments. It's good to get some real perspective every once in a while. Helps to rejuvenate the entrepreneurial spirit.

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Cutting Back

When news about the economy is bad, individuals and businesses cut back; they cut jobs, budgets, forecasts, etc. These cutbacks in turn cause the economy to worsen, as we spend less and take on a defensive financial posture. The bad news and the cutbacks mutually reinforce each other, and can produce a long and painful recession, or a depression.

Are we in a depression? In my opinion, no, we're not, and we aren't headed for one either. The American economy is simply too robust, and today the government has a lot more power to get growth back on track than it did back in the 1930's. The main difference between now and then is that back then money was backed by gold -- the gold standard -- whereas today we have a fiat currency. Fiat currency means that the Fed and the Treasury Department can literally pump trillions of dollars into the economy, as they are doing now, without putting the real treasure -- American gold -- at risk. Soon, everything will be OK. All our government has to worry about is inflation down the road, which it will tackle by raising interest rates. Easy.

I'm still trying to figure out what the next bubble is going to look like. During the Clinton years, it was technology in general, with the Internet leading the charge. Earlier this decade, it was, of course, housing and easy credit. But how is America going to prosper after the Fed has raised rates? Can the green movement really generate serious wealth for you and your neighbor? Will American innovation be a big enough engine that can raise the standard of living for a large swath of American households? I'm still trying to figure it out, so I can prepare for it and ride that wave when it comes.

For now, my prediction is that this recession will last until at least the second quarter of 2010. Fed Boss Ben Bernanke, America's most powerful economist, recently said that he thinks a return to growth will happen by the end of the year. Here's a clip:

"...We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year. Key elements of this forecast are our assessments that the housing market is beginning to stabilize and that the sharp inventory liquidation that has been in progress will slow over the next few quarters. Final demand should also be supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus. An important caveat is that our forecast assumes continuing gradual repair of the financial system; a relapse in financial conditions would be a significant drag on economic activity and could cause the incipient recovery to stall. I will provide a brief update on financial markets in a moment.

Even after a recovery gets under way, the rate of growth of real economic activity is likely to remain below its longer-run potential for a while, implying that the current slack in resource utilization will increase further. We expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum and that economic slack will diminish slowly. In particular, businesses are likely to be cautious about hiring, implying that the unemployment rate could remain high for a time, even after economic growth resumes..."

I think Bernanke's prediction is too optimistic. In my opinion, the housing problem needs more time to stabilize. I'm hoping Uncle Ben is right, and I'm wrong. But I understand where he's coming from. Bottom line: The best way to break the self-reinforcing, downward spiral is to dump as much cash as possible into the financial system, and inject as much optimism as possible into the collective American psyche.


No More TV

Since the peak of the credit crisis in October 2008, I've been cutting back in many ways, but yesterday I did something I never thought I'd ever do: I canceled my cable TV. I kept the High-Speed Internet service, but canceled all cable TV options. I'm no TV addict -- I never watch TV during the day -- but there are certain programs I enjoy when I need to take a break from work. Here's a list:

• Nightly Business Report
• Nature
• NOW
• Bill Moyers Journal
• Secrets of the Dead
• Frontline
• Masterpiece (they should run I, Claudius every year)
• Modern Marvels
• How It's Made
• On The Money
• Suze Orman
  
• Kudlow and Company
• for the occasional laugh: Family Guy, Robot Chicken, American Dad, (that alcoholic, drama queen alien cracks me up) and South Park.
  

Digital TV is just around the corner, and I'm hoping it will work in my area. Conventional TV never worked where I live. I think it's because the cable company is sabotaging it. When I had cable installed years ago and asked why I couldn't get any free TV through the airwaves, I was told that it was because I'm too close to the airport. Nonsense!

I won't miss Comcast. I don't like the way the company operates. They treat their customers like suckers: all those ridiculous fees! For example, why should I be forced to pay a monthly fee for a cable box? Should be a one-time fee. Moreover, the more channels you have, the more they charge you for each cable box! It's BS and I can't stand it.

It's all good, really. Fact: all the smartest and most accomplished people I know either don't own a TV or they have a TV set but only use it to watch rented movies. Yep.

I really need to play catch up with my reading list anyway.

Expanding My Culinary Repertoire

I've also been expanding my skills in the kitchen so that I don't get the urge to eat out as often as I do. I need to learn how to cook dishes that don't require a lot of preparation, cook fast and taste great. I'm middle-aged, so eating right is important. Besides, I have no tolerance for grilled cheese, Ramen noodles and the like.

An old boarding school friend helped me perfect what has become my most common meal: London Broil. This cut of meat is always reasonably priced at my local market, and, thankfully, it goes on sale quite often. There is no need to marinate this steak for hours as many pro chefs will tell you. I make an extremely tasty meal from this cut like this:

1. List of Ingredients: London Broil steak, Lea and Perrins Worcestershire Sauce, one yellow onion, olive oil.
   
   
2. Preheat your conventional oven to 375 degrees.
   
   
3. You want to caramelizing slices of a yellow onion in a pan with olive oil while the meat is cooking in your conventional oven. Begin by heating the olive oil on high heat, add the onion slices then turn the heat down to medium-low. Turn slices every 5 minutes or so until nicely browned. Meat will be done a few minutes after your onions are ready.
   
   
4. While the onions are caramelizing, place the steak on a glass Pyrex® baking dish. (FYI: all Pyrex bakeware is manufactured in the USA!)
   
   
5. Poke holes on one side of the meat with a standard fork. The more holes, the better.
   
   
6. Shake up a bottle of Lea and Perrins Worcestershire Sauce and flood the perforated meat with plenty of sauce. Don't be stingy. Important: Don't use any other brand of Worcestershire sauce.
   
   
7. Flip the meat over and repeat steps 5 and 6.
   
   
8. Place meat in oven, middle rack, and cook each side for 12 minutes.
   
   
9. Remove meat from the oven and cut into the center. You should have a thin, brown outer layer and plenty of pink in the middle. This meat is best when it's medium-rare. If you don't like all that rawness in the middle you can stick in back in the oven for a few more minutes, but be warned: if the meat is brown right through to the center, it will be tough and won't taste as good.
   
   
10. Add your carmelized onions to the pyrex dish with the meat and let the meat stand for 3-5 minutes. Makes sure the onions are submerged in plenty of drippings. Also, use a spoon to spread plenty of drippings on top of the meat to keep it moist. And you're done!
    

You can save even more time by forgoing the onions. Meat will still taste great.

While the meat is cooking, the smell of the cooking meat will probably make your mouth water. I always snack on a raw carrot while cooking.

I get plenty of carbs from my other meals during the day so when I cook this dish I have it with a side of salad and a couple of raw carrots. This roughage is very important if you want your gut to last a good long time (i.e. avoid colon cancer.) I also eat plenty of fruit during the day to keep my pipes happy.

One bite of this and all my cravings for a savory restaurant meal quickly melt away.

I don't worry about cholesterol since a) it's never been a problem for me, b) no problems with it in my family history and c) I believe in the Blood Type Diet.

The above is a great meal for a bachelor. When my daughter visits, we usually enjoy pasta with low fat meat sauce (I brown the meat, dump it in a colander then run it under hot then cold water to get rid of the fat) with a salad on the side.

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Recession Worries: Bad for Teeth; Boon to Dentists

Six days ago, I woke to find pain in my jaw, on the right-hand side near the temple. The pain wasn't so severe that I couldn't work or think (yes, I've known that kind of mouth pain in the past), but it was annoying. I was worried about the cause. Could it be Tetanus (also known as lockjaw)? Or maybe I was grinding my teeth in my sleep? I'd never had a problem with nocturnal teeth grinding, but to me it seemed the most likely cause.

I decided to try my own fix. In bed, and close to dreamland, I got into the habit of extending my tongue so that it formed a barrier between my upper and lower gnashers. There was little change after a day, but two days later the pain was almost completely gone, and my tongue suffered no ill effects. Today I woke to find that my jaw was 100% back to normal.

I'm thankful that the pain has been eradicated, but now, once again, I'm worried about the cause. I'm 99% certain that it's this recession. I've been worried about my income, bills and responsibilities for some months now, and I think the anxiety is starting to take it's toll on my unconscious mind. Am I getting enough rest? I feel like I am, but I'd need to go to a sleep center to know for sure.

Then, earlier today, I listened to a great episode of my favorite NPR radio show This American Life. Today's show was called "Scenes From a Recession." The show begins with a segment about how this recession has been a boon to dentists. Nocturnal teeth grinding is up, resulting in chipped and worn out teeth. I was sorry to hear about the teeth, but it was nice to know that I'm not alone.

This recession episode also features a great piece detailing, in documentary form, the closing of a failed bank (if you're wondering which bank, it's this one.) Good stuff.

And that's not all: there's also a fascinating piece covering the final days of a Circuit City store, and it includes the kind of detailed coverage I've come to admire -- no love -- about This American Life (FYI: Circuit City no longer exists.) I found this particular story compelling, because I always thought the service at Circuit City was beyond terrible, and most of my friends didn't agreed with me.

If you missed it, the episode will be available (at the story link above) as a free MP3 download within a few days. Highly recommended.

Of course, if I'm wrong and it is Tetanus, I'll blog about it at this blog, from my hospital bed! But I think I'm OK. If the pain comes back I'll look into getting a teeth grinding guard later this week.

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