Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for OCTOBER 2025
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for October 2025 was released today:
Predicted: 55.0
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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.
The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.
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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
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Predicted: 55.0
- Actual: 53.6
- Change from Previous Month: -2.72% (-1.5 points)
- Change from 12-Months Previous: -23.97% (-16.9 points)
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- Final ICS Reading for September 2025: 55.1
- Final ICS Reading for October 2024: 70.5
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From Today's Report:
"...Consumer sentiment was little changed this month, slipping a scant 1.5 index points from September. A modest increase in sentiment among younger consumers was offset by decreases among middle-age and older consumers. Current personal finances inched up, while expected personal finances receded. Overall, consumers perceive few material changes in economic circumstances from last month; inflation and high prices remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds.
There was little evidence this month that consumers connect the federal government shutdown to the economy. Only about 2% spontaneously referenced the shutdown during this month’s interviews, compared with the 10% of consumers who did so in January 2019 during that 35-day shutdown.
Year-ahead inflation expectations ebbed from 4.7% last month to 4.6% this month. These expectations are currently midway between the readings seen a year ago and the highs seen this year in May in the wake of the initial announcements of major tariff changes. Long-run inflation expectations increased from 3.7% last month to 3.9% this month but remains below this year’s high point seen in April.
This month’s increase in long-run inflation expectations was driven primarily by independents and Republicans. Inflation uncertainty -- as measured by the interquartile range of expectations -- ticked up for both time horizons this month..."
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CHART: Concerns Over High Interest Rates
for Poor Buying Conditions for Major
Purchases Fell During October 2025
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for Poor Buying Conditions for Major
Purchases Fell During October 2025
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:
- "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these
days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are
better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
- "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your
family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or
just about the same as now?"
- "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do
you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
- "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the
country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five
years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
- "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture,
a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally
speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major
household items?"
- Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.
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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.
The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.
=========
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
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Labels: America, consumer, consumer_sentiment, consumers, FedPrimeRate, FedPrimeRate.com, soft_data, spending, stock_market, Stocks, Tariffs, Trump_Tariffs, USA, Wealth
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posted by Steve Brown | 10/24/2025 02:05:00 PM
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