Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for OCTOBER 2026
Here are the FINAL Results of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS), for October, 2026:
Predicted: 48.0
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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.
The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.
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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
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Predicted: 48.0
- Actual: 48.0
- Change from Previous Month: -0.21% (-0.1 point)
- Change from 12-Months Previous: -10.45% (-5.6 points)
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- Final ICS Reading for September, 2026: 48.1
- Final ICS Reading for October, 2025: 53.6
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From Today's Report:
"...Consumer sentiment held steady this month, registering a scant one-tenth of an index point below September. Increases in sentiment among Republicans and Democrats were balanced by declines among independents.
While year-ahead business conditions improved about 14%, they stand 16% less than last October’s read. This month’s decline in the Current Conditions subindex was driven entirely by buying conditions for durables, which plunged 18% on the basis of higher interest rates and rising concerns about the affordability of such purchases.
Purchasing power continues to dominate consumer views of the economy. Sentiment is now 10% below a year ago and 15% less than February, just prior to the Iran [invasion].
Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up from 4.6% last month to 4.7% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran [invasion] began, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run inflation expectations also stepped up from 3.4% in September to 3.5%, notably higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%.
Inflation expectations over both time horizons increased for the second straight month to their highest readings since May. See today’s special report for additional historical context for long-run inflation expectations..."
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CHART: Pain of High Prices
Escalates Since January 2026
Escalates Since January 2026
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:
- "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these
days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are
better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
- "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your
family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or
just about the same as now?"
- "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do
you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
- "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the
country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five
years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
- "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture,
a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally
speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major
household items?"
- Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.
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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.
The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.
=========
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
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Labels: America, consumer, consumer_sentiment, consumers, FedPrimeRate, FedPrimeRate.com, Iran, Iran_Invasion, soft_data, spending, stock_market, Stocks, Tariffs, Trump_Tariffs, USA
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posted by Steve Brown | 10/26/2026 05:14:00 AM
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