Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for SEPTEMBER 2026

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for September, 2026 was released today:

Predicted: 48.0

• Actual: 47.8

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• Change from Previous Month: -7.54% (-3.9 points)
  
  

• Change from 12-Months Previous: -13.25% (-7.3 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for August, 2026: 51.7
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for September, 2025: 55.1

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment receded less than 4 index points for the second consecutive month of decreases. Democrats and Republicans alike posted sizable declines, while independents were little changed from August.

Year-ahead expectations for both personal finances and business conditions plunged. With a resurgence in fuel prices and trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressures on their pocketbooks to come.

Five-year expected business conditions remained stable at readings well below their historical average, suggesting that consumers believe that emerging risks this month may not have further worsened the long-run outlook.

Overall, sentiment is now 16% below February, prior to the start of the Iran [invasion], and 13% lower than a year ago.

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% last month to 4.6% this month, the highest reading since June.

The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran [invasion] began, along with all 2024 readings.

Long-run inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, ending three consecutive months at 3.3%. These expectations remain higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%..."

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CHART: Gasoline and Tariff Concerns 
Both Drive Recent Changes
 in Inflation Expectations
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

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