Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for August 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for August 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 60.0

• Actual: 58.6

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• Change from Previous Month: -5.02% (-3.1 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -13.7% (-9.3 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for July 2025: 61.7
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for August 2024: 67.9

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell back about 5% in August, declining for the first time in four months. This deterioration largely stems from rising worries about inflation. Buying conditions for durables plunged 14%, its lowest reading in a year, on the basis of high prices. Current personal finances declined modestly amid growing concerns about purchasing power.

In contrast, expected personal finances inched up a touch along with a slight firming in income expectations, which remain subdued. Overall, consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April when reciprocal tariffs were announced and then paused.

However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future.

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.5% last month to 4.9% this month. This increase was seen across multiple demographic groups and all three political affiliations. Long-run  inflation expectations also lifted from 3.4% in July to 3.9% in August.

This month ended two consecutive months of receding inflation for short-run expectations and three straight months for long-run expectations. Still, both readings remain well below the highs seen briefly in April and May 2025..."

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CHART: Unemployment and Inflation Expectations Worsen
in August, Partially Offsetting Recent Improvements
AUGUST 2025 Preliminary UPDATE
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

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