Consumer Sentiment: PRELIMINARY Results for September 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - PRELIMINARY Results for September, 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 58.0

• Actual: 55.4

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• Change from Previous Month: -4.81% (-2.8 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -21.0% (-14.7 points)

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• Final ICS Reading for August 2025: 58.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for September 2024: 70.1

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From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment moved down less than three index points in early September. This month’s easing in economic views was particularly strong among lower and middle income consumers. Buying conditions for durables improved, while all other index components fell.

Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labor markets, and inflation.

Likewise, consumers perceive risks to their pocketbooks as well; current and expected personal finances both eased about 8% this month.

Trade policy remains highly salient to consumers, with about 60% of consumers providing unprompted comments about tariffs during interviews, little changed from last month.

Still, sentiment remains above April and May 2025 readings, immediately after the initial announcement of reciprocal tariffs.

Year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 4.8%, unchanged from August. Long-run inflation expectations moved up for the second straight month to 3.9% in September. This current reading is considerably lower than the 4.4% seen in April..."

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CHART: Consumers Continue to Expect Unemployment
to Rise, with Heightened Risks of Personal Job Loss
AUGUST 2025 UPDATE
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

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